2026年01月27日：期货市场交易指引-20260127

Report Investment Ratings Macroeconomics and Finance - Index: Long - term bullish, buy on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: Short - term trading [6] - Rebar: Range trading [7] - Glass: Hold off [7] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Hold off or hold long positions lightly and roll [9] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation [11] - Nickel: Hold off [12] - Tin: Range trading or take profit on previous long positions [13] - Gold: Range trading [15] - Silver: Bullish [15] - Lithium carbonate: Range - bound [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Range trading [17] - Caustic soda: Hold off [19] - Soda ash: Hold off [26] - Styrene: Range trading [19] - Rubber: Range trading [21] - Urea: Range trading [23] - Methanol: Range trading [25] - Polyolefins: Weakly range - bound [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range adjustment [26] - Apples: Weakly range - bound [28] - Jujubes: Weakly range - bound [28] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: Short on rebounds [30] - Eggs: Avoid shorting in the short term [32] - Corn: Be cautious about chasing highs, hedge on rebounds [34] - Soybean meal: Bearish on rallies [35] - Fats and oils: Bullishly range - bound [41] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their respective market fundamentals, including supply - demand relationships, cost factors, policy impacts, and international situations. It also analyzes short - term and long - term trends and risks of each product to help investors make decisions. Summary by Category Macroeconomics and Finance - Index: Affected by international trade policies, central bank policies, and market sentiment, it may range - bound in the short term but is long - term bullish [5] - Treasury bonds: Without significant negative factors, they may range - bound in a narrow range as there is limited impetus for further interest rate declines [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: Due to weak fundamentals, demand is sluggish, and supply disturbances may limit the downside. Short - term trading is recommended [6] - Rebar: With a slight over - valuation in price, weak short - term supply - demand contradictions, and a policy vacuum period, range trading is the main strategy [7] - Glass: With stable supply, weakening speculative demand, and limited downstream inventory digestion, it may range - bound around 1050 - 1070. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash [7] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Supported by macro factors but with weak fundamentals, it may range - bound at high levels. Be cautious of pre - holiday profit - taking [9] - Aluminum: With stable supply, weakening demand, and cooling of market sentiment, it may adjust at high levels [11] - Nickel: Although stimulated by policy, fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to hold off [12] - Tin: With tight supply and stable demand, it may range - bound. Attention should be paid to supply resumption and demand recovery [13] - Gold and silver: Driven by geopolitical tensions and changes in the Fed's policy expectations, they are bullish. Silver is recommended to hold long positions, and gold is recommended for range trading [15] - Lithium carbonate: With supply disturbances and strong demand, it may range - bound [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: With low valuation, weak domestic demand, and high inventory, it may have a bottom. Range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to policies and cost factors [17] - Caustic soda: With high supply pressure and weak demand, it may range - bound at low levels. Attention should be paid to supply - side adjustments [19] - Styrene: With high valuation after a rebound, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs. Attention should be paid to cost and supply - demand changes [19] - Rubber: With supply contraction but high inventory pressure, it may range - bound. Attention should be paid to inventory and downstream demand [21] - Urea: With sufficient supply and increasing demand, it may range - bound. Attention should be paid to supply - side changes and demand trends [23] - Methanol: With weak domestic demand and strong local prices, it may range - bound. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and port arrivals [25] - Polyolefins: With increasing supply and weakening demand, they may range - bound weakly. Attention should be paid to cost and demand [25] - Soda ash: With supply over - capacity and cost support, it is recommended to hold off [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: With a decrease in global cotton output and an increase in consumption, long - term expectations are optimistic, but short - term caution is needed [26] - Apples: With slow sales in the main production areas and slightly improved sales in some secondary areas, they may range - bound weakly [28] - Jujubes: With the end of raw material acquisition in Xinjiang and stable market transactions, they may range - bound weakly [28] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: In the short term, prices may range - bound due to supply - demand games. In the long term, be cautious about the upside. Range - bound trading and hedging are recommended [30] - Eggs: With high valuation and supply pressure in the medium - long term, hedging of post - holiday contracts is recommended [32] - Corn: With short - term supply - demand balance and long - term loose supply - demand, be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rebounds [34] - Soybean meal: With short - term support and long - term pressure, short - term range trading and long - term bearishness are recommended [35] - Fats and oils: Bullishly range - bound. Hold previous long positions and exit previous spread - narrowing strategies [41]