格华期货早盘提示：尿素-20260127

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (urea) is "slightly more long - biased and oscillatory" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The urea price is in a slightly stronger oscillation, and the reference range for the 05 contract is 1,740 - 1,840 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to sell put options [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, the price of the urea main contract 2605 rose by 4 yuan to 1,791 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China mainstream area was 1,740 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings decreased by 707 lots to 252,000 lots, and short - position holdings increased by 613 lots to 271,900 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: On January 26th, the daily urea production was 209,400 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons from the previous working day and 14,700 tons from the same period last year. The current start - up rate is 88.95%, a 2.01% increase from 86.94% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 946,000 tons, a decrease of 40,100 tons from last week, a 4.07% month - on - month decrease. The sample inventory at urea ports is 134,000 tons, unchanged month - on - month [1] - Demand: The start - up rate of compound fertilizer is 40.1%, a 2.9% month - on - month increase, and the start - up rate of melamine is 54.3%, a 6.7% month - on - month increase [1] - Tender: On January 2nd, India's NFL urea import tender received 26 suppliers with a total bid of 3.62 million tons, including 1.59 million tons on the east coast and 2.02 million tons on the west coast. The lowest bids were from Koch, at CFR426.8 dollars/ton on the east coast and 424.8 dollars/ton on the west coast [1] - Import and Export: In December 2025, urea imports were 35.39 tons, an 82.11% month - on - month decrease, and the average import price was 2,963.69 dollars/ton, a 52.11% month - on - month decrease. Urea exports were 278,300 tons, a 53.75% month - on - month decrease, and the average export price was 398.27 dollars/ton, a 56.64% month - on - month decrease [1] - Oil Price: The US plans to strengthen sanctions on the oil sectors of some countries, increasing concerns about potential supply risks and causing international oil prices to rise. The NYMEX crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.71 dollars/barrel to 61.07 dollars/barrel, a 2.88% month - on - month increase; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.82 dollars/barrel to 65.88 dollars/barrel, a 2.84% month - on - month increase. China's INE crude oil futures 2603 contract fell 6.9 to 439.4 yuan/barrel and rose 10.4 to 449.8 yuan/barrel in night trading [1] Market Logic - Last week, the urea enterprise inventory continued to decline slightly. The lowest ex - factory price of mainstream urea factories yesterday was 1,680 - 1,720 yuan/ton. New order pre - sales of urea factories improved again, but due to the pre - sales pressure during the Spring Festival holiday, the urea price oscillated slightly stronger [1] Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to sell put options [1]