光大期货能化商品日报（2026年1月27日）-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short - term. Factors such as supply and demand changes, geopolitical situations, and seasonal impacts all have an influence on the market. For example, the supply of crude oil has increased, which eases the market's concerns about shortages, but geopolitical tensions in the Middle East still bring uncertainties; the fuel oil market is affected by factors such as the situation in Iran and supply changes; the polyester market is affected by device maintenance and downstream demand [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Monday, oil prices fluctuated and declined. The WTI March contract closed down $0.44 to $60.63 per barrel, a decline of 0.72%. The Brent March contract closed down $0.29 to $65.59 per barrel, a decline of 0.44%. The SC2603 closed at 450.1 yuan per barrel, down 0.8 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.18%. The resumption of a key Black Sea terminal and the upcoming restart of the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan have increased supply, easing concerns about shortages. However, the continuous tension in the Middle East and the dispatch of US naval forces have also increased concerns about Iranian oil production. The oil price is in a chaotic state and will continue to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 6.81% to 2791 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2604 rose 3.49% to 3206 yuan per ton. The price increase of FU was significantly affected by the escalation of the situation in Iran. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is strong due to the recovery of downstream demand, but the expected increase in the volume of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage vessels arriving in Singapore in January may bring inventory accumulation pressure. The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a mix of long and short factors. The absolute prices of FU and LU are greatly affected by geopolitical situations and are recommended to be observed for the time being [2]. - Asphalt: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.39% to 3279 yuan per ton. In February, refinery production is expected to decline slightly, and some local refineries have stopped production in the short - term, tightening supply. The demand is in the off - season, and cold snaps and snowfall have hindered terminal demand. The market still has expectations of potential shortages of raw materials for local refineries in the far - month, but the impact on the recent market has weakened. Attention should be paid to the speed of social inventory accumulation [2]. - Polyester: TA605 closed at 5438 yuan per ton, down 0.18%; EG2605 closed at 3994 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The PX futures main contract 603 closed at 7522 yuan per ton, up 0.19%. The sales of polyester yarn in the Yangtze River Delta and Zhejiang regions are weak, with an average sales estimate of about 50%. Multiple polyester and ethylene glycol plants have undergone maintenance or restart operations. After the Spring Festival, the demand is expected to recover. It is expected that the prices of PX and TA will oscillate at a high level, and the price of ethylene glycol will show an oscillatory trend [2][3]. - Rubber: On Monday, the main natural rubber contract RU2605 fell 85 yuan per ton to 16230 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract fell 10 yuan per ton to 13085 yuan per ton, while the butadiene rubber BR main contract rose 335 yuan per ton to 13265 yuan per ton. The inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone decreased, while the general trade inventory in Qingdao increased. Overseas rubber production is coming to an end, and the port inventory is accumulating. The rubber market has limited contradictions, and the rubber price is expected to remain oscillatory. The supply and demand of butadiene are temporarily tight, and the price of butadiene rubber is expected to follow the cost [3][5]. - Methanol: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2300 yuan per ton. The supply of domestic methanol is at a high - level oscillation, and the MTO operating load in East China has weakened. The overall demand is weak, and the port still has pressure to reduce inventory. It is expected that methanol will maintain a bottom - level oscillation [5]. - Polyolefins: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6530 - 6650 yuan per ton. The supply has increased due to the resumption of production of some upstream plants, while the downstream demand will weaken as the Spring Festival approaches. It is expected that polyolefins will gradually start to accumulate inventory, but the price will be affected by cost and geopolitical risks in the short - term and will show a wide - range oscillation [6]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): On Monday, the market prices of PVC in East China, North China, and South China all increased. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the domestic demand is slowing down. The overall fundamental situation is bearish, but the export policy will have different impacts in the short - and long - term. It is expected that the PVC price will maintain a bottom - level oscillation [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for multiple energy and chemical products including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, linear low - density polyethylene, polypropylene, purified terephthalic acid, ethylene glycol, styrene, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and soda ash on January 26 and January 23, 2026 [7]. 3.3 Market News - The resumption of a key Black Sea terminal in Kazakhstan and the upcoming restart of the Tengiz oilfield have increased the supply of crude oil, easing market concerns about shortages. At the same time, the continuous tension in the Middle East and the dispatch of US naval forces have increased concerns about Iranian oil production [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and p - xylene from 2022 to 2026 [11][12][13][15][17][19][20][21][22]. - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts for multiple products including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips from 2022 to 2026 [23][24][27][28][29]. - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts for multiple products such as fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, LLDPE, PP, and natural rubber from 2022 to 2026 [31][33][37][39][41][43]. - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: The report presents the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety for multiple products such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, PP - LLDPE, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber from 2022 to 2026 [46][48][49][53]. - 4.5 Production Profits: The report shows the production profit, processing fee, and cash - flow charts for multiple products such as LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - made ethylene glycol from 2022 to 2026 [55][56]. 3.5 Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Deputy Director Zhong Meiyan, Energy and Chemical Research Director Du Bingqin, Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst Di Yilin, and Methanol/Propylene/Pure Benzene PE/PP/PVC Analyst Peng Haibo, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [60][61][62][64].