光大期货金融期货日报-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Stock Index Futures: The A - share market was in high - level oscillation yesterday. Wind All - A dropped 0.68% with a trading volume of 3.28 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 Index fell 1.24%, the CSI 500 Index declined 0.97%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.57%, and the SSE 300 Index increased 0.1%. Recent economic regulation policies provide fundamental support. The central bank cut the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools by 25BP last week, which helps guide funds into relevant sectors and push up valuations in the long - run. The adjustment of the minimum margin ratio for margin trading may increase risk - aversion sentiment. The market is in high - level oscillation with increased short - term volatility, and the risk of a significant index decline is low in the medium - to - long - term. The overall view is "oscillation" [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The 30 - year main contract rose 0.20%, while the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.02%. The central bank conducted a 1505 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase on January 26. After the central bank's structural interest - rate cut, fiscal policies continue to exert force. In the context of continuous introduction of growth - stabilizing policies, the bond market lacks the driving force for continuous strengthening, and the pattern of interest - rate range oscillation continues. The overall view is "relatively strong" [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: On January 26, 2026, compared with January 23, IH rose 0.67% (20.4 points), IF increased 0.22% (10.2 points), IC dropped 2.17% ( - 188.2 points), and IM declined 2.67% ( - 227.4 points) [4]. - Stock Indexes: The SSE 50 rose 0.57% (17.4 points), the SSE 300 increased 0.10% (4.5 points), the CSI 500 fell 0.97% ( - 83.5 points), and the CSI 1000 declined 1.24% ( - 105.3 points) [4]. - Treasury Bond Futures: TS fell 0.03% ( - 0.026 points), TF dropped 0.03% ( - 0.03 points), T declined 0.01% ( - 0.015 points), and TL rose 0.19% (0.21 points) [4]. 3.2 Market News - The ChiNext Index fell more than 1%, the SSE Composite Index dropped 0.2%, and the SZSE Component Index declined 0.81%. Sectors such as semiconductor chips, commercial spaceflight, robotics, and AI applications led the decline. Nearly 4000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets fell [6]. - In 2025, domestic residents' travel trips reached 65.22 billion, an increase of 9.07 billion compared with the previous year, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%. Among them, urban residents' domestic travel trips were 49.96 billion, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%; rural residents' domestic travel trips were 15.26 billion, a year - on - year increase of 22.6% [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - Contract Trends: Charts show the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts from January 2025 to January 2026 [8]. - Basis Trends: Charts present the trends of the current - month basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM from January 2025 to January 2026 [9][11]. 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Contract and Yield Trends: Charts display the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts and treasury bond spot yields from January 2025 to January 2026 [15]. - Basis, Spread, and Interest - rate Trends: Charts show the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, cross - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest - rates from January 2024 to January 2026 [16][19][23]. 3.3.3 Exchange Rates - Exchange - rate Trends: Charts illustrate the trends of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange - rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen from January 2025 to January 2026 [25][26][29][30]. 3.4 Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. His futures practice qualification number is F3060829, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0015271 [32]. - Wang Dongying, an equity index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index financial report analysis, and market fund - flow tracking. His futures practice qualification number is F03087149, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0019537 [32].