华宝期货晨报铝锭-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The price of steel products is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with its focus shifting downwards and showing a weak performance [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mining - end news [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Steel Products - Production Impact: Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will halt production from mid - to late January and resume around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of output. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped on January 5, most will stop in mid - January, and some after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - Market Transaction: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - Market Situation: Steel products continued to decline yesterday, hitting a new low. In a weak supply - demand situation, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3] - Later Concerns: Macro policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum Products - Macro Factors: The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this week, but news of Powell's successor may impact the market [2] - Raw Material Supply: Some northern mining areas have reduced production due to weather. In Henan, bauxite mining in Xin'an stopped last weekend and is resuming, with an 80% drop in supply due to transportation issues. Southern domestic mines are stable, and domestic ore prices are expected to remain stable [3] - Production Situation: Domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects are ramping up, and daily output is rising. The overall aluminum processing start - up rate was 60.9% last week, up 0.7 percentage points. Different sub - industries have different situations, with some affected by environmental protection, weather, and market demand [3] - Inventory: On January 26, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 777,000 tons, up 28,000 tons from last Monday [3] - Price Outlook: Due to macro uncertainty and weak dollar, non - ferrous metals are strong. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro events and downstream feedback [4] - Later Concerns: Changes in macro expectations, development of geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4]