生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the soft commodity sector, Zheng sugar's fundamentals are loose, and a sell - on - rally operation is considered for the main 05 contract; the pulp supply pressure eases, but the domestic finished paper is in the off - season, so the operation is changed from a single - sided short allocation to an interval operation; the upward space of double - offset paper futures is expected to be limited, and a short - term short operation is recommended; the cotton price may be adjusted in the short term, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [3][4][5][6][8][9]. - For the fresh fruit and vegetable sector, the apple price may enter the support range, and a long - thinking operation is recommended; for jujubes, it is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points in the 2605 contract, and for long positions, buy protective put options [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Reference Strategy | Main Logic | Support Interval | Pressure Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | Reduce long positions | Support from lower new - season output, good - fruit rate, and peak value year - on - year still exists, but the suppression of insufficient consumption increment drive also increases, and the near - month contract falls in the short term [19]. | 8800 - 8900 | 11000 - 11500 | | Jujube 2605 | Buy on dips in the short term | The expectation of production reduction may gradually appear in the far - month, and the spot inventory begins to peak and decline [19]. | 8700 - 9000 | 9500 - 9800 | | Sugar 2605 | Sell on rallies | The international sugar supply is sufficient, and it is the peak season for domestic sugar supply, with overall sufficient supply [19]. | 5070 - 5100 | 5270 - 5300 | | Pulp 2605 | Short in the interval | There are still long - term benefits from supply and the increase in warehouse - receipt cost, but the recent downstream performance is average, which may put some pressure on the market [19]. | 5200 - 5300 | 5550 - 5600 | | Double - offset Paper 2605 | Interval operation | The spot market is stable, and the basis widening provides phased support for the market. Later, the publishing orders may weaken, and it is still difficult to be optimistic about the upward height under the low capacity utilization rate [19]. | 4000 - 4100 | 4300 - 4350 | | Cotton 2605 | Reduce long positions | The long - term bullish expectation still exists, and the medium - term support is still there, but the foreign - market price is in a bottom - searching trend, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price, and the futures price enters a volatile and repeated stage in the short term [19]. | 13500 - 13600 | 15400 - 15500 | 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - Fundamental Information: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of January 21, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in the main apple - producing areas in China was 6.8278 million tons, a decrease of 218,800 tons from the previous week. As of January 22, 2026, the inventory was 6.3232 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 232,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 296,900 tons [20]. - Spot Market: The price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in Shandong is stable, and the packaging willingness of merchants in cold storage is okay. The price in Shaanxi is also stable, and the cold - storage packaging and shipment volume have increased recently. The arrival of goods in the sales area is increasing, and the sales are stable [20][21][22]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of January 11, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,300 tons, a decrease of 349 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23% and a year - on - year increase of 41.27%. The acquisition in the production area is basically over, and the market supply and demand are expected to enter a peak season with the approaching of the Lunar New Year [23]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market As of the week of January 21, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 51, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 1.7816 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 118,700 tons and an increase of 7.13%. From the second half of December, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased year - on - year. The ISMA expects the sugar consumption in India in the 2025/26 crushing season to rise slightly to 28.5 million tons [25]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The demand in the Chinese pulp market has slowed down significantly, and the futures market's shock has made traders and investors cautious. The price of the main 2026 May BSK futures contract has fallen, and the weakness has spread to the spot market. Traders expect prices to fall further and have raised the forward resale quotes [28]. 3.2.5 Double - offset Paper Market The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% from last Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points month - on - month. The start - up load rate was 57.43%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points month - on - month, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points month - on - month [29]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market In November, India's cotton imports were about 170,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.8% and a year - on - year increase of 94.2%. As of January 15, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 93,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21%, and the weekly shipment volume was 42,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20% [30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9466 | - 69 | - 0.72% | | Jujube 2605 | 8760 | - 40 | - 0.45% | | Sugar 2605 | 5172 | - 8 | - 0.15% | | Pulp 2605 | 5374 | - 24 | - 0.44% | | Cotton 2605 | 14650 | - 45 | - 0.31% | 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5270 | - 10 | - 640 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5400 | 0 | - 1150 | | Double - offset Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 600 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15995 | 125 | 1288 | 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary provided, only relevant figures are mentioned, such as the basis of Apple May contract, Jujube main contract, etc. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Prediction | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1191 | - 6 | 1746 | Oscillate strongly | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 240 | 0 | 150 | Reverse spread on highs | Wait and see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 17 | - 2 | - 154 | Oscillate | Wait and see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 155 | 10 | 0 | Oscillate weakly | Sell on highs | 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning No specific data summary provided, only relevant figures about the top 20 long - position, short - position, and trading - volume rankings of each variety are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse - receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse - receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 3325 | 27 | - 679 | | Sugar | 13715 | - 30 | - 10413 | | Pulp | 139554 | 0 | - 197742 | | Cotton | 10144 | 172 | 3428 | 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary provided, only relevant figures about the trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility of apple, sugar, and cotton options are mentioned.