金融期货早评-20260127

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Global capital is shifting from virtual assets, weak - credit currencies, and traditional fixed - income assets to physical hard assets and stable RMB assets. Key factors such as the implementation of the RMB offshore ecosystem, Japan's fiscal health, the US - Japan interest rate differential, the supply - demand gap in non - ferrous metals, and the progress of Europe's strategic autonomy need to be closely monitored [2]. - In the short term, the RMB is expected to appreciate against the US dollar, but the appreciation process is likely to be moderate and orderly. The export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 7.01, while the import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 6.93 [3][4][5]. - The stock index is expected to continue to adjust in the short term, with the risk of a significant adjustment in the small - and medium - cap index due to the weakening of the profit - making effect [5][7]. - Treasury bonds are likely to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [7][8]. - The container shipping market on the European route shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Geopolitical risks drive up the long - term premium, but the weakness of the spot market and high shipping capacity limit the upside of the near - term contracts [8][9][10]. - For lithium carbonate, it is advisable to seize the opportunity to replenish stocks on dips. In the short term, the price and basis are expected to strengthen, and the long - term value is supported by the industry fundamentals. However, attention should be paid to the impact of price increases on downstream demand [12][13]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term price of industrial silicon is likely to rise, but the supply contraction of polysilicon will restrict the upward elasticity of industrial silicon prices. It is recommended to adopt an interval - trading strategy [14][15][16]. - For copper, the price is cautious due to strengthened regulatory measures. It is not recommended to build new positions above 100,000 yuan; long positions built in the 90,000 - 95,000 yuan range can be held, and those in the 95,000 - 100,000 yuan range can be flexibly adjusted [18][20][21]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and rise in the long term; alumina is expected to fluctuate weakly; cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly [22][23]. - Zinc is likely to fluctuate weakly based on fundamentals but may also fluctuate strongly following the sector [23]. - Nickel - stainless steel is expected to fluctuate weakly at night after rising and then falling. The impact of the sunken nickel ore ship is limited, and the fundamentals are generally stable [24][25]. - Tin is expected to maintain a wide - range high - volatility and is recommended to enter the market with caution [26]. - Lead is expected to fluctuate narrowly and weakly. It is recommended to sell options to earn stable premiums [27]. - Oilseeds are at the bottom and oscillating. It is recommended to reduce the short - position of rapeseed meal and hold the bottom - position with a stop - loss [28][29]. - Oils are running strongly. In the short term, the oil sector is likely to rise easily and fall hard, with palm oil being the strongest [30][31]. - Fuel oil follows cost fluctuations. The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a weak fundamental situation, but the Iran issue provides support at the bottom [33][34]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to oscillate mainly. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is not significantly boosted [35][36]. - Asphalt's upward movement is questionable, and a callback is to be vigilant. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate, and the 02 and 03 contracts' premium opportunities may be stable trading opportunities [37][38][39]. - For platinum and palladium, in the medium - to - long - term, the bull market foundation remains, but short - term callback risks should be vigilant. It is not advisable to chase high prices rashly [40][41][42]. - Gold and silver are in a pattern of easy to rise and hard to fall. The short - term price turns strong again. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term, and pay attention to position control for silver [43][44][45]. - For pulp and offset paper, it is advisable to wait and see first. Pulp futures can try a short - selling strategy [47][48]. - LPG has short - term support. The price is affected by overseas cold snaps, geopolitical risks, and the overall strength of the chemical sector, but the demand side is weakening [49][50][51]. - PTA - PX has cooled down slightly with the macro - mood. The high valuation of PX - TA is not recommended to chase up, and it is more appropriate to buy on dips during the callback [52][53][55]. - MEG - bottle chips have seen a valuation rebound due to supply reduction. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate widely with the macro - atmosphere, and it is not suitable to be used as a short - position target [56][57]. - Methanol's trading logic is first strong and then weak. It is recommended to wait for a one - sided trade, conduct a 3 - 5 reverse spread, and expand the MTO profit [58][59][60]. - PP has enhanced cost support. It is expected to show a state of weak supply and demand, and the current fluctuations are mainly driven by macro - sentiment [61][62]. - PE has weak fundamental support, and its price is mainly affected by macro - sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [63][65][66]. - Pure benzene - styrene rises and then falls. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for opportunities to buy styrene on dips [67][68]. - Rubber has high capital enthusiasm, with long - short tug - of - war and rising then falling. It is recommended to wait and see or hold a light position, and pay attention to the spread opportunities [69][72][74]. - Glass and soda ash are oscillating at the bottom. Soda ash has an increasing supply expectation, and glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with no obvious trend [75][76][77]. - Propylene is running strongly fundamentally with cost disturbances. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to geopolitical and device changes [77][78][79]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are oscillating in the bottom range. The steel price is expected to oscillate, and the price ranges of the main contracts in the short term are 3050 - 3200 yuan for rebar and 3200 - 3350 yuan for hot - rolled coil [80][81]. - Iron ore's shipment is still high. The price has fallen from the high level, but the downside is limited due to the support of steel fundamentals, steel mill profits, and restocking expectations [82][83][84]. - Coking coal and coke: The coking enterprises' losses are intensifying, and the first - round price increase is expected to be implemented. The coking coal shows a pattern of "strong spot, weak futures," and attention should be paid to the post - holiday mine resumption progress and macro - sentiment changes [85][86][87]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are oscillating in the range, with the cost providing support at the bottom. The price ranges of the 05 contracts are 5400 - 5900 yuan for ferrosilicon and 5700 - 6100 yuan for ferromanganese [88][89]. - For live pigs, the main contract is expected to oscillate in the 11500 - 12000 yuan range [91][92]. - Cotton has a high internal - external price difference. The cotton price is likely to rise easily and fall hard under the tight - balance expectation, but it is restricted by the internal - external price difference in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to downstream imports and orders [92][93]. - Sugar: The raw sugar is pressured by the cost line. The probability of the futures price rising further is relatively limited, and the spot price provides no positive support [94][95]. - Eggs: The futures price is oscillating upward. The egg price is expected to be stable in the short term, with slight adjustments in some areas according to supply and demand [96]. - Apples: The consumption logic dominates the market. The price may rise further if the demand continues to improve and the inventory is depleted more than expected [102][103]. - Jujubes: The market focuses on the demand side. The price may oscillate at a low level in the short term and is under pressure in the long term [104]. - Logs: The trading activity is low. The price is supported at the bottom by the low inventory and stable spot price, but there is no strong upward driver. It is recommended to use option double - selling, interval trading, and 3 - 5 positive spread strategies [105][107][108]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: The US and Japan may jointly intervene in the exchange rate. The US government's potential shutdown risk may amplify market sentiment. The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately against the US dollar [1][3][4]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose. Key variables affecting the subsequent appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar include the strength of the US dollar index and the central bank's exchange - rate control orientation [3][4][5]. - Stock Index: The stock index style switched last trading day, and the index is expected to continue to adjust in the short term, with the small - and medium - cap index at risk of a significant adjustment [5][7]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market showed a differentiated trend on Monday. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term, and it is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [7][8]. - Container Shipping on the European Route: The market is characterized by near - term weakness and long - term strength. Geopolitical risks drive up the long - term premium, while the spot market weakness and high shipping capacity limit the upside of near - term contracts [8][9][10]. Commodities New Energy - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price fell, and the trading volume increased. In the short term, the price and basis are expected to strengthen, and the long - term value is supported by the industry fundamentals [12][13]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures rose slightly. The short - term price of industrial silicon is likely to rise, but the supply contraction of polysilicon will restrict the upward elasticity of industrial silicon prices [14][15][16]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price rose overnight, but the exchange strengthened supervision, and the price trend is cautious. It is not recommended to build new positions above 100,000 yuan [18][20][21]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and rise in the long term; alumina is expected to fluctuate weakly; cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly [22][23]. - Zinc: The zinc price rose and then fell, and it is likely to fluctuate weakly based on fundamentals but may also fluctuate strongly following the sector [23]. - Nickel - Stainless Steel: The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures fell. The impact of the sunken nickel ore ship is limited, and the fundamentals are generally stable [24][25]. - Tin: The tin price rose and then fell under the influence of regulations. It is expected to maintain a wide - range high - volatility and is recommended to enter the market with caution [26]. - Lead: The lead price fluctuated weakly. It is expected to oscillate narrowly, and it is recommended to sell options to earn stable premiums [27]. Oils and Feeds - Oilseeds: The market is at the bottom and oscillating. It is recommended to reduce the short - position of rapeseed meal and hold the bottom - position with a stop - loss [28][29]. - Oils: The oil market is running strongly. In the short term, the oil sector is likely to rise easily and fall hard, with palm oil being the strongest [30][31]. Energy and Oil and Gas - Fuel Oil: It follows cost fluctuations. The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a weak fundamental situation, but the Iran issue provides support at the bottom [33][34]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It is expected to oscillate mainly. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is not significantly boosted [35][36]. - Asphalt: Its upward movement is questionable, and a callback is to be vigilant. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate [37][38][39]. Precious Metals - Platinum & Palladium: The prices of platinum and palladium futures fell. In the medium - to - long - term, the bull market foundation remains, but short - term callback risks should be vigilant [40][41][42]. - Gold & Silver: The prices of gold and silver rose. They are in a pattern of easy to rise and hard to fall. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term, and pay attention to position control for silver [43][44][45]. Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The pulp futures price rebounded from the low level, and the offset paper futures price is expected to be neutral. It is advisable to wait and see first, and pulp futures can try a short - selling strategy [47][48]. - LPG: It has short - term support. The price is affected by overseas cold snaps, geopolitical risks, and the overall strength of the chemical sector, but the demand side is weakening [49][50][51]. - PTA - PX: It has cooled down slightly with the macro - mood. The high valuation of PX - TA is not recommended to chase up, and it is more appropriate to buy on dips during the callback [52][53][55]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: The MEG futures price fell. The supply reduction has led to a valuation rebound, and in the short term, the price is expected to oscillate widely with the macro - atmosphere [56][57]. - Methanol: The trading logic is first strong and then weak. It is recommended to wait for a one - sided trade, conduct a 3 - 5 reverse spread, and expand the MTO profit [58][59][60]. - PP: It has enhanced cost support. It is expected to show a state of weak supply and demand, and the current fluctuations are mainly driven by macro - sentiment [61][62]. - PE: It has weak fundamental support, and its price is mainly affected by macro - sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [63][65][66]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: It rises and then falls. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for opportunities to buy styrene on dips [67][68]. - Rubber: It has high capital enthusiasm, with long - short tug - of - war and rising then falling. It is recommended to wait and see or hold a light position, and pay attention to the spread opportunities [69][72][74]. - Glass and Soda Ash: They are oscillating at the bottom. Soda ash has an increasing supply expectation, and glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with no obvious trend [75][76][77]. - Propylene: It is running strongly fundamentally with cost disturbances. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to geopolitical and device changes [77][78][79]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: The prices are oscillating in the bottom range. The steel price is expected to oscillate, and the price ranges of the main contracts in the short term are 3050 - 3200 yuan for rebar and 3200 - 3350 yuan for hot - rolled coil [80][81]. - Iron Ore: The shipment is still high. The price has fallen from the high level, but the downside is limited due to the support of steel fundamentals, steel mill profits, and restocking expectations [82][83][84]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking enterprises' losses are intensifying, and the first - round price increase is expected to be implemented. The coking coal shows a pattern of "strong spot, weak futures," and attention should be paid to the post - holiday mine resumption progress and macro - sentiment changes [85][86][87]. - Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: They are oscillating in the range, with the cost providing support at the bottom. The price ranges of the 05 contracts are 5400 - 5900 yuan for ferrosilicon and 5700 - 6100 yuan for ferromanganese [88][89]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Live Pigs: The futures price fell. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the 11500 - 120