房地产行业报告（2026.1.19-2026.1.25）：小阳春提前，关注度提升

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - Recent policy measures focus on "stabilizing demand and reducing inventory," including extending personal income tax refunds for home purchases until the end of 2027 and lowering the down payment ratio for commercial properties from 50% to 30%, which is expected to activate liquidity in the commercial property market. A "small spring" in the real estate market is anticipated, with core city demand showing resilience and a rebound in the second-hand housing market [5][6] Industry Fundamentals Tracking New Housing Transactions and Inventory - Last week, the new housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 119.25 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 594.21 million square meters for the year, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 27.9%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 148.55 million square meters, also down 27.9% year-on-year and 23.5% month-on-month. Specifically, first-tier cities saw a 29.3% year-on-year decline, while second-tier and third-tier cities experienced decreases of 21.4% and 39.2%, respectively [6][14] Second-Hand Housing Transactions and Listings - In the last week, the second-hand housing transaction area in 20 cities was 241.17 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 871.87 million square meters for the year, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 217.97 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.6% [7][29] Land Market Transactions - Last week, 100 major cities saw 23 new residential land supplies and 15 residential land transactions. The average transaction price for residential land was 4,675.25 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 0.77%, down 0.24 percentage points month-on-month [36] Market Review - Last week, the A-share real estate index rose by 5.21%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.62%, resulting in a 5.83 percentage point outperformance. The Hong Kong property service and management index increased by 1.08%, while the Hang Seng Composite Index decreased by 0.12% [40][42]