综合晨报-20260127

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The current financial market is influenced by multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy changes. Different industries present various trends, with most markets expected to show oscillatory movements, and investors need to closely monitor relevant events and data [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The market is in a tug - of - war between geopolitical risk premiums and a supply - surplus fundamental. OPEC+ may maintain stable production in March, but major supply disruptions could prompt an output increase. High inventory pressure in Q1 2026 is a long - term factor suppressing price increases. Brent crude has rebounded to $65/barrel, and WTI to $61/barrel. Attention should be paid to whether the Iran conflict will threaten actual supply [2]. - Precious Metals: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated violently, with gold and silver breaking through key integer thresholds. It is advisable to wait for volatility to decline before participating. Focus on the Fed meeting, Middle East situation, and the risk of the US government shutdown [3]. - Base Metals: - Copper: Overnight, US copper prices declined at the end of the session. The market may focus on the US government shutdown and Trump's tariff threats. Copper prices are likely to remain in a high - level oscillation and tend to adjust [4]. - Aluminum: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. Geopolitical events have increased market volatility, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the high - level oscillation range [5]. - Other Metals: Each metal has its own supply - demand characteristics. For example, zinc has strong cost support but weak consumption; lead has a cost - consumption game; nickel has high - level oscillation and market caution; tin has increasing supply pressure; and lithium carbonate has high - level oscillation and high short - term uncertainty [8][9][10]. - New Energy - Related Materials: - Polysilicon: The spot market is sluggish, with inventory pressure rising. The "rush - to - export" has not effectively boosted procurement. The market is expected to continue oscillating [13]. - Industrial Silicon: It was boosted by production - cut expectations but has seen a retracement in gains. Supply is decreasing, but demand is weak in various sectors, and inventory is slightly increasing. It is expected to enter a de - stocking phase in February, but the de - stocking amplitude is limited [14]. - Building Materials and Fuels: - Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Geopolitical factors support the market in the short term. High - sulfur supply has increased, and low - sulfur supply tightness has eased. The market is expected to follow crude oil and show a strong trend [22]. - Asphalt: It has been in an oscillatory range since early January. Cost provides support, but terminal demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [23]. - Urea: The futures market is oscillating firmly, and the spot price is diverging. Supply pressure remains, and the market will continue to fluctuate within a range [24]. - Methanol: Due to the tense Iran situation, the market rose significantly. Overseas device operation is at a low level, and port inventory has slightly increased. It is expected to operate strongly in the short term and gradually de - stock in the long term [25]. - Other Chemicals: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand and price trends. For example, pure benzene is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term and de - stock in the long term; styrene has cost support but short - term price pressure; and polypropylene, plastic, and propylene have complex supply - demand situations [26][27][28]. Agricultural Products - Grains and Oils: - Soybeans and Soybean Meal: The market has digested the South American harvest expectations. Brazilian soybean harvesting is slow, and Chinese soybean procurement is progressing. The market may bottom - oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to Brazilian harvest and Canadian rapeseed imports [36]. - Vegetable Oils: Malaysian palm oil supply - demand has improved marginally, and US soybean oil policies are favorable. The market is affected by policies and macro - inflation trading [37]. - Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil: The import situation of rapeseed is uncertain. The supply - demand difference between rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is conducive to the increase of the oil - meal ratio, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [38]. - Livestock and Poultry Products: - Pigs: The spot price is weak, and the futures price has declined. The industry will face accelerated slaughter before the Spring Festival, and pig prices may reach a low point in the first half of next year [41]. - Eggs: The spot price is strong due to supply reduction and pre - festival demand. The futures near - month contract is strong, and the far - month contract is weak. In the short term, observe whether the spot price can remain strong, and in the long term, consider going long on the first - half - year contracts at low prices [42]. - Other Agricultural Products: - Cotton: US cotton is at the bottom, and Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating at a high level. Demand is stable in the off - season, and the market may continue to oscillate [43]. - Sugar: International sugar production varies by country. In China, the market focuses on production differences, and short - term prices face pressure [44]. - Apples: The futures price is oscillating. Spot trading has increased for pre - festival stocking, and attention should be paid to the impact of quality and sentiment on inventory reduction [45]. - Wood and Pulp: Wood prices are low, with low inventory providing support. Pulp demand is weak, and the short - term fundamentals are general [46][47]. Financial Products - Stock Index: A - shares adjusted yesterday, and the market is affected by geopolitical situations, regulatory attitudes, and the Fed's decisions. The index is expected to change from a rapid rise to an oscillatory - strong trend [48]. - Treasury Bonds: On January 26, 2026, treasury bond futures showed a differentiated performance. The 30 - year bond continued to rise, and the curve flattened. Strategies include paying attention to TS - T steepening and T - TL flattening opportunities [49].