招商证券：1月港股消费观察：外卖反垄断如何影响港股消费股前景？

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the food and beverage sector, recommending leading companies in snacks and condiments [7][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in retail sales growth, with December's year-on-year growth at 0.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from November, indicating a potential slowdown in consumer spending [8]. - The food and beverage sector shows positive signals, particularly for Moutai, which is expected to maintain stable pricing due to supply-side constraints and increasing demand [9][10]. - The report anticipates that service consumption will be the main growth driver for 2026, with an expected overall consumption growth rate of 5.1% [8]. Industry Size - The industry comprises 1,216 stocks, with a total market capitalization of 17,809.1 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 16,466.7 billion [3]. Performance Metrics - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 4.4%, 7.0%, and 27.3% respectively, while the relative performance is 3.4%, -7.1%, and 4.5% [5]. Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in various sectors, including: - Food and beverage: Emphasis on Moutai and other snack brands [9]. - Textile: Anticipation of a turnaround for Li Ning in 2026 [13][14]. - E-commerce: Positive outlook on Alibaba due to its cloud business growth potential [24]. - Agriculture: Continued recommendation of leading pig farming companies and attention to planting policy catalysts [30]. Specific Company Insights - Moutai is expected to see stable pricing and growth in demand, with a focus on core products [9]. - Li Ning is actively launching new products and expanding its retail presence, aiming for a rebound in 2026 [13][14]. - Alibaba's cloud business is projected to accelerate growth driven by AI advancements [24]. - The agricultural sector is advised to focus on leading pig farming companies and the implications of planting policies [30].