中国香港楼市到底凭借什么成功构筑“止跌企稳”平台并实现反弹？

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate development sector in Hong Kong [4] Core Insights - The recovery of the Hong Kong real estate market in 2025 is characterized by a rebound in transaction volume, transaction value, and property prices after a period of adjustment, with key indicators showing synchronized growth [9][10] - The recovery is driven by multiple favorable factors including policy support, manageable inventory levels, and an influx of talent and financial sector recovery, which collectively enhance market demand [9] Summary by Sections 1. Recovery of the Hong Kong Real Estate Market in 2025 - In 2025, the Hong Kong real estate market shows signs of recovery with a significant increase in transaction volume and value, with first-hand residential transactions reaching 21,000 units, up 21% year-on-year, and transaction value at 220.83 billion HKD, up 14% [10] - Second-hand residential transactions also increased to 42,000 units, with a transaction value of 299.01 billion HKD, reflecting a 17% and 14% year-on-year growth respectively [10] - The Centaline City Leading Index shows a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4.7%, indicating a "first drop, then stabilization, and finally rebound" trend [10] 2. Core Support Factors for the Recovery A. Policy Support - Continuous policy support, including the "de-spicy" measures and tax reductions, has activated the Hong Kong real estate market. The government removed several restrictive measures and significantly reduced stamp duties for non-local buyers, stimulating market activity [22][23] - The budget proposal in February 2025 raised the property value cap for the 100 HKD stamp duty from 3 million HKD to 4 million HKD, easing the financial burden on small unit buyers and leading to a surge in transactions below 4 million HKD [22] B. Manageable Inventory Levels - The inventory level is relatively controllable, with the total number of first-hand residential units available for sale decreasing to 18,387 units, a reduction of 2.7% month-on-month and 15.2% year-on-year, marking a two-and-a-half-year low [2] - The absorption rate of inventory is approximately 10 months, indicating a balanced supply-demand structure that supports price stabilization [2] C. Talent Policies and Financial Sector Recovery - The introduction of talent policies has led to an influx of high-quality buyers, with over 570,000 applications received for talent entry programs, resulting in approximately 260,000 new residents, which bolsters housing demand [3] - The financial sector has seen a strong recovery, with the Hong Kong IPO market raising 82.6 billion USD in 2025, more than doubling from the previous year, which enhances consumer confidence and purchasing power in the housing market [3][46]