有色金属数据日报-20260127

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The U.S. January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 51.9, with employment sub - index hitting a new low since last year but still expanding for six consecutive months, and output reaching the highest level since August 2025. The EU Commission plans to extend the suspension period of anti - tariff measures against the U.S. [2] - For copper, the dollar index is under pressure, which is positive for the non - ferrous sector. However, the spot market has sufficient supply, demand is cautious, and LME inventory accumulation may suppress prices. Short - term copper prices will fluctuate. [2] - For aluminum, the macro - sentiment warms up, but industrial drivers are limited, and domestic inventory accumulates. The price is expected to fluctuate. [2] - For zinc, geopolitical tensions are rising, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. The domestic processing fee is at a low level, smelting profit is inverted, and production is expected to decline. Zinc prices will follow the sector to fluctuate. [2] - For nickel, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is stable. Indonesia's nickel - related policies and supply - side disturbances may affect prices. Short - term nickel prices are high, and in the long - term, high global inventories may suppress prices. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term. [2] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Price Indicators - LME non - ferrous metal futures prices showed various changes, such as copper at $12,921.5 with a 2.28% change and nickel at $18,705 with a 3.71% change. SHFE prices also had different changes, like aluminum at 23,990 yuan/ton with a - 0.31% change and nickel at 145,380 yuan/ton with a 2.81% change. [1] Inventory Indicators - LME non - ferrous metal inventories and their changes varied. For example, LME copper inventory was 170,525 tons with a 26.05% change, and LME zinc inventory was 111,325 tons with an 11.43% change. SHFE inventories also had different trends, such as SHFE aluminum inventory increasing from 141,725 tons to 197,053 tons with a 6.01% change. [1][2] Ascending and Descending Water Indicators - LME and SHFE non - ferrous metal ascending and descending water showed different changes. For example, SHFE copper's ascending and descending water changed from - 66.1 yuan/ton to 16.78 yuan/ton with an - 82.8 change. [2] Price - to - Price Ratio Indicators - The current price - to - price ratios of non - ferrous metals and their changes were presented. For example, the copper price - to - price ratio was 7.84 with a 7.81% change, and the zinc price - to - price ratio was 7.51 with a - 1.05% change. [2] Near - month to Continuous Third - month Spread Indicators - The current spreads of SHFE non - ferrous metals and their changes were shown. For example, the copper spread changed from - 290 yuan/ton to - 950 yuan/ton with a - 660 change. [2]