长久期二永债还有交易空间吗？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The secondary perpetual bond market shows a distinct feature of "long - end leading the rise", with long - end yields falling significantly more than short - end yields. The long - term spread of secondary perpetual bonds has been repaired, forming a steep term spread compression pattern. Insurance institutions increase their allocation of 7 - 10 - year bonds, and funds increase their allocation of 3 - 5 - year bonds. [2][12] - After the structural differentiation market, the transmission from the long - end to the short - end is not smooth, and the downward momentum of the long - end is limited. The trading difficulty of medium - and long - term secondary perpetual bonds remains relatively large. It is recommended to use 3 - 5 - year varieties as the bottom position and wait for opportunities in the adjustment of relatively long - term varieties. [4][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1. Market Review: Insurance Institutions Increase Allocation, and Long - Term Secondary Perpetual Bonds of Large Banks Have an Independent Market - Yield Performance: In the third week of January, the yields of secondary perpetual bonds decreased, with long - end varieties performing particularly prominently. The 7 - year and 10 - year yields of secondary capital bonds decreased by 9.61bp and 8.84bp respectively, while the 1 - year yield only decreased by about 1bp. Perpetual bonds showed a similar pattern. In contrast, the long - end yields of other credit bonds such as medium - and short - term notes and commercial financial bonds decreased more moderately. [12] - Spread Compression: The credit spread quantiles of secondary perpetual bonds generally showed a compression trend, and the long - term spread repair of secondary perpetual bonds was the most prominent. The 10 - year and 7 - year spread quantiles of secondary capital bonds decreased by 20.70 and 15.61 percentage points respectively. The 7Y - 5Y term spread quantile decreased significantly, indicating a greater decline in the 7 - year yield and an obvious increase in the preference of allocation funds for this term variety. [16] - Institutional Allocation: Insurance institutions increased their allocation of 7 - 10 - year and 20 - 30 - year bonds, with net purchases of 12.44 billion yuan and 42.66 billion yuan respectively. Fund institutions' net purchases were mainly concentrated in the medium - and long - end, with a large - scale net purchase of 243.13 billion yuan in the 3 - 5 - year period. Other institutions had different allocation and reduction behaviors. [17] - Transaction of Individual Bonds: The trading of 7 - year secondary capital bonds was concentrated in state - owned banks, with Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank accounting for more than 90%. The representative bonds of the two banks had significant trading volumes and their yields decreased. [19] 3.2 2. Outlook: Limited Transmission from the Long - End to the Short - End, and Relatively Large Trading Difficulty - Analysis of Historical Market Conditions: Five periods of similar duration differentiation market conditions since 2022 were selected. In these periods, long - term bonds generally had a greater decline in yields than short - term bonds. After that, the transmission from the long - end to the short - end was not smooth, and the long - end's downward momentum was limited. [23] - Market Outlook: The differentiation of spread quantiles is usually a leading signal for market differentiation. When secondary capital bond yields show a structural differentiation where long - term varieties decline more than short - term ones, there is no smooth transmission from long - to medium - and short - term bonds. Short - end yields are at relatively low historical quantiles, with limited downward space and low allocation cost - effectiveness. In a non - bull market environment, it is difficult for secondary perpetual bonds to achieve a rotation between long and short market conditions after term spread compression, and the subsequent trend of long - term secondary perpetual bonds is more likely to be volatile. [29][30] - Trading Suggestions: Since the end of 2025, the short - end yield and credit spread quantiles of secondary capital bonds have decreased significantly, while the long - term yield quantiles have remained around 50% and the credit spread quantiles around 80%. Although there is no obvious supply pressure for long - term secondary perpetual bonds and moderately lengthening the duration has certain feasibility, the trading difficulty is still relatively large. It is recommended to use 3 - 5 - year varieties as the bottom position and wait for adjustment opportunities in relatively long - term varieties. [32][33]