黑色商品日报（2026年1月27日）-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are all expected to fluctuate in the short - term [1][3]. - For steel, although construction demand is weakening and inventory is accumulating, macro - policy easing expectations, high steel exports, and low inventory pressure on steel mills keep the market stable, so the steel price will fluctuate narrowly [1]. - For iron ore, with the increase in Australian shipments, stable - to - decreasing Brazilian shipments, and the increase in iron - water production and port and mill inventories, the price will show an oscillating trend under the influence of multiple factors [1]. - For coking coal, with private coal mines entering the holiday season, decreased market enthusiasm, and cautious purchasing by downstream coking enterprises, the price will oscillate [1]. - For coke, with high raw - material costs, weakening demand from the steel industry, and possible decline in iron - water production, the price will also oscillate [1]. - For manganese silicon, with small increases in production, support from demand for February tenders, stable costs, and high inventory, it will maintain an oscillating pattern before the holiday [1]. - For ferrosilicon, with a slight decline in production, approaching the end of pre - holiday stockpiling, weakening cost support, and a small increase in inventory, it will mainly oscillate [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Steel - The closing price of the rebar 2605 contract was 31,423 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.03%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 11,000 in positions. Spot prices were basically stable, and the trading volume remained low. National building material inventory increased by 5.2% to 316.08 million tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.87% to 2.052 billion tons [1]. Iron Ore - The price of the iron ore futures main contract i2605 fell to 784.5 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan/ton (1.3%) from the previous trading day, with 260,000 in trading volume and a decrease of 1,000 in positions. Australian shipments increased, Brazilian shipments decreased slightly, and global shipments rebounded slightly. Iron - water production increased by 0.09 million tons to 2.281 billion tons, and port and mill inventories continued to accumulate [1]. Coking Coal - The closing price of the coking coal 2605 contract was 1,159.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.22%), with a decrease of 8,590 in positions. The price of main coking coal in Shanxi increased, and the price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port also changed. With private coal mines entering the holiday season and cautious purchasing by downstream coking enterprises, the price will oscillate [1]. Coke - The closing price of the coke 2605 contract was 1,719 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (0.17%), with a decrease of 1,308 in positions. The spot price at the port decreased. With high raw - material costs and weakening demand from the steel industry, the price will oscillate [1]. Manganese Silicon - The price of the manganese silicon futures main contract was 5,828 yuan/ton, down 0.41% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 11,028 in positions to 359,600. The market price in some areas increased slightly. Production increased slightly last week, demand for February tenders provided some support, costs were stable, and inventory remained high [1]. Ferrosilicon - The price of the ferrosilicon futures main contract was 5,628 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 19,307 in positions to 196,600. The market price was basically stable. Production decreased slightly last week, pre - holiday stockpiling was approaching the end, cost support weakened, and inventory increased slightly [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as profit and spread data such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, and various commodity ratios [3]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, inter - period contract spreads, and inter - variety contract spreads of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2021 to 2026, as well as the profit charts of rebar [5][14][22][36][41]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The black research team members include Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional experience and qualifications [47][48].