软商品日报-20260127

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The cotton market is expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival. On January 27, 2026, the main cotton contract closed at 14,650 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 7,457 lots to 795,900 lots. The ICE U.S. cotton price dropped 1.36% to 62.94 cents/pound, and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract decreased by 0.51%. Overseas macro disturbances have increased risk - aversion, postponing the first interest - rate cut of the year to June. In the domestic market, textile enterprises' pre - holiday stocking is limited, and as the Spring Festival approaches, they will start to have holidays. The current cotton inventory is at a high level, and imported cotton has increased, so the upward driving force for cotton prices is limited [2]. - Sugar: The sugar market is also expected to be volatile. In the 2025/26 sugar - making season in December, India reached the milestone of 20% ethanol blending in gasoline. The spot price range of Guangxi sugar - making groups is 5,260 - 5,330 yuan/ton, with some prices down 10 yuan/ton; Yunnan sugar - making groups' price is 5,130 - 5,180 yuan/ton, unchanged. The raw sugar has not broken out of the volatile range. In the domestic market, spot trading has slowed down, inventory is accumulating, and the market sentiment is average. Future attention should be paid to the production data in January and the latest production estimates in Guangxi [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 3 - 5 contract spread is 45 yuan, up 40 yuan; the main contract basis is 1,345 yuan, up 170 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,717 yuan/ton, up 122 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,995 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan [3]. - Sugar: The 3 - 5 contract spread is 10 yuan, up 2 yuan; the main contract basis is 148 yuan, up 8 yuan. The Nanning spot price is 5,270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price is 5,320 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 2. Market Information - Cotton: On January 26, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,144, an increase of 172 from the previous trading day, with 986 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 15,717 yuan/ton, Henan 16,038 yuan/ton, Shandong 16,049 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 16,184 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 47.6, down 0.3 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 24.6, unchanged; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 50.6, down 0.2; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 32.3, up 0.1 [4]. - Sugar: On January 26, the sugar spot price in Nanning was 5,270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous trading day, and in Liuzhou it was 5,320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 13,715, a decrease of 30 from the previous trading day, with 132 valid forecasts [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - Cotton: The report provides charts of the cotton main contract closing price, main contract basis, 3 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index: 3218B [7][10][11][12]. - Sugar: The report provides charts of the sugar main contract closing price, main contract basis, 3 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts [14][15][17]. 4. Research Team - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, an analyst responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass; and Sun Chengzhen, an analyst mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferro - alloy [19][20][21].