液化石油气日报：地缘风险攀升，盘面强势反弹-20260127

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Report's Core View - The recent significant escalation of the Middle East situation, with the US increasing pressure on Iran, has led to a rise in the geopolitical premium of crude oil and driven up downstream energy - chemical products. The LPG market has a large risk exposure to the Iranian situation, and the US cold wave is also bullish for LPG. However, excluding geopolitical and seasonal factors, the endogenous upward drive of the LPG market is relatively limited. In the medium - term, the global LPG supply is expected to continue to increase, and the market is expected to be in a state of oversupply [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 26, the regional prices in different markets in China were as follows: Shandong market, 4440 - 4440 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3940 - 4100 yuan/ton; North China market, 4250 - 4430 yuan/ton; East China market, 4170 - 4340 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4680 - 4980 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4300 - 4360 yuan/ton; South China market, 4740 - 4820 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of February 2026, the CIF prices of propane and butane in East China were 639 US dollars/ton and 629 US dollars/ton respectively, up 19 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4913 yuan/ton for propane and 4836 yuan/ton for butane, up 140 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF prices of propane and butane were 631 US dollars/ton and 621 US dollars/ton respectively, up 19 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4852 yuan/ton for propane and 4775 yuan/ton for butane, up 141 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly strong, and the development of the Iranian situation should be closely monitored. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options. [3]