超长段修复，国债期货涨跌分化

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation continued while the increase in global trade uncertainty added to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillates between stable growth and loose expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to the end - of - month policy signals [3] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a 0.80% year - on - year increase; PPI had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [8] - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan (+0.47%); M2 year - on - year growth was 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% (+6.25%); Manufacturing PMI was 50.10%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.90% (+1.83%) [9] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 97.05, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.43 (-0.44%); The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.9483, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.002 (-0.02%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.54, with a month - on - month increase of 0.05 (+3.49%); DR007 was 1.57, with a month - on - month increase of 0.08 (+5.38%); R007 was 1.68, with a month - on - month increase of 0.17 (+11.44%); The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.58, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 (+0.08%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 (+0.08%) [10] II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Figures include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures (unit: yuan), the change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures (unit: %), the precipitation fund trend of each variety of treasury bond futures (unit: 100 million yuan), the position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures (unit: %), the net position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures (top 20) (unit: %), the long - short position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures (top 20) (unit: none), the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds (unit: %), and the issuance of treasury bonds (unit: 100 million yuan) [11][14][18][21] III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - Figures include the Shibor interest rate trend (unit: %), the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) (unit: %), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase (unit: number of transactions, 100 million yuan), the issuance of local bonds (unit: 100 million yuan), the inter - period spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures (unit: yuan), and the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (4TS - T) [28][30][31] IV. Spread Overview - Figures include the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (2TS - TF), (2TF - T), (3T - TL), and (2TS - 3TF + T) [36][37][40] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures include the implied interest rate and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures (unit: %), the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate (unit: %), the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract (unit: yuan), and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract (unit: yuan) [39][42][47] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures include the implied interest rate and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures (unit: %), the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate (unit: %), the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract (unit: yuan), and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract (unit: yuan) [48][50][51] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures include the implied yield and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures (unit: %), the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate (unit: %), the three - year basis trend of the T main contract (unit: yuan), and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract (unit: yuan) [52][53][54] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures include the implied yield and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures (unit: %), the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate (unit: %), the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract (unit: yuan), and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract (unit: yuan) [58][60][61]