铝价高位压力有所显现

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for aluminum: Neutral [9] - Investment rating for alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Investment rating for aluminum alloy: Neutral [9] - Investment rating for arbitrage: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Aluminum prices show signs of weakness at high levels, with spot discounts widening and social inventories continuously increasing. Downstream demand enters the off - season, and there is a need for price correction in the short term, while long - term macro factors still support price increases [6] - Alumina spot prices are still falling, with the futures market in a premium state. The cost support is weak, the supply pressure remains high, and the surplus pattern remains unchanged, with social inventories increasing [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 24,030 yuan/ton, with a change of - 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 160 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - Central China A00 aluminum price is 23,940 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes - 20 yuan/ton to - 250 yuan/ton [1] - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 24,070 yuan/ton, with a change of - 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium changes - 10 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Futures - On January 26, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,460 yuan/ton, closed at 24,215 yuan/ton, a change of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 24,570 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 24,095 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 510,890 lots, and the positions were 322,087 lots [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of January 26, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 777,000 tons, a change of 34,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory is 141,725 tons, a change of 573 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory is 505,275 tons, a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On January 26, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi is 2,610 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 2,555 yuan/ton, in Henan is 2,640 yuan/ton, in Guangxi is 2,685 yuan/ton, in Guizhou is 2,740 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina is 308 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On January 26, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,725 yuan/ton, closed at 2,732 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change rate of 0.37%, a maximum price of 2,745 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2,703 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 590,668 lots, and the positions were 488,440 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 26, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum is 17,900 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum is 18,300 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 is 23,500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 67,000 tons, and the in - factory inventory is 65,100 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 22,874 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is 426 yuan/ton [5]