节前运价驱动偏弱，关注马士基WEEK7报价

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pre - holiday freight rate drivers are weak, and attention should be paid to Maersk's WEEK7 quotes. The market is speculating on the price - holding expectations of relatively low pressure on March's shipping capacity. The near - term 04 contract is expected to fluctuate. In normal years, April and October are the months with the lowest freight rates. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products such as photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries and further affect shipping companies' pricing strategies. Investors should be cautious when participating in the 04 contract. Attention should be paid to whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe can significantly increase in February and March and whether the actual freight rates will be stronger than in normal years. The 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, and the 4 - month contract is bearish. The uncertainty of the Suez Canal's resumption time and the relatively small delivery of ultra - large ships in 2026 will cause greater fluctuations in the far - month contracts [1][5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of January 26, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 63,443.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 51,020.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 contracts were 1726.70, 1200.20, 1447.60, 1524.00, 1114.20, and 1373.50 respectively [7]. II. Spot Prices - On January 23, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1595 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 2084 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 2896 US dollars/FEU. On January 26, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1859.31 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1294.32 points [7]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static Supply: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. Among them, 80 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 1.213 million TEU have been delivered, and 13 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a total capacity of 277,672 TEU have been delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 781,200 TEU (53 ships) will be delivered in 2026, 944,500 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1.212 million TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 210,400 TEU (9 ships) will be delivered in 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships) in 2028, and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. Only 4 ships over 17,000 TEU will be delivered in the first half of 2026 [2][3]. - Dynamic Supply: The average weekly capacity in February was 283,000 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK6/7/8/9 were 340,000, 342,000, 261,100, and 188,300 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in March was 295,800 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK10/11/12/13/14 were 252,400, 338,600, 348,700, 285,200, and 254,500 TEU respectively. There were 13 blank sailings in February (6 by the OA alliance, 6 by the PA alliance, and 1 by the Gemini alliance) and 5 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March [3]. IV. Supply Chain - The stability in the Red Sea area has improved. On January 15, Maersk announced that it would resume the Suez Canal route for its MECL service to improve transportation efficiency on the premise of ensuring safety. CMA has decided to divert the ships deployed on the FAL 1, FAL 3, and MEX routes via the Cape of Good Hope instead of passing through the Suez Canal [2][6]. V. Demand and European Economy - In December and January, the cargo volume was at a relatively high level during the year. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products such as photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries and further affect shipping companies' pricing strategies. Attention should be paid to whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe can significantly increase in February and March and whether the actual freight rates will be stronger than in normal years [5].