买卖双方观望情绪浓重，铅价维持震荡格局

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoint - The lead price is expected to show a slight increase within the week, but will generally remain in the range of 16,900 yuan/ton to 17,700 yuan/ton. The supply in some areas has decreased due to extreme weather, while the demand for electric vehicle batteries has declined significantly approaching the Spring Festival, and the demand for automotive batteries is still acceptable. Some enterprises may start pre - holiday inventory replenishment [3] Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On January 26, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$44.56/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,975 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,925 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,925 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -125 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,300 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On January 26, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,170 yuan/ton and closed at 17,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 49,016 lots, an increase of 11,587 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest was 63,785 lots, a decrease of 1,409 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 17,215 yuan/ton and a minimum of 17,065 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, a rise of 65 yuan/ton compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, the discount of suppliers' quotes narrowed to a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2603 contract for ex - factory prices; in Hunan, smelters' quotes were at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex - factory prices, with light trading, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 180 - 160 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2603 contract for ex - factory prices; in Jiangxi and Anhui, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory prices [2] Inventory - On January 26, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 35,000 tons, an increase of 700 tons compared to the same period last week. As of January 26, the LME lead inventory was 213,600 tons, a decrease of 1,575 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The investment strategy is to sell a wide straddle [4]