新单成交好转，关注消息扰动

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a unilateral strategy of "oscillating upward", a cross - period strategy of "going long on the UR05 - 09 spread when it is low", and no cross - variety strategy [3] Core Viewpoints - New order transactions are improving, and attention should be paid to news disturbances. The spot price of urea has decreased, but enterprise transactions are good. The supply has increased as some gas - based and technologically - reformed enterprises resumed production in January. The demand, which was affected by snow and rain last week, has improved recently. Agricultural demand for winter and spring fertilizers is ongoing, and compound fertilizer production and melamine production have increased, leading to better procurement. The overall inventory in urea factories is decreasing, while port inventory remains flat. The international urea price has risen due to the situation in Iran, and India is expected to tender again. The domestic export quota has no new news, and attention should be paid to export dynamics, national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On January 26, 2026, the urea main contract closed at 1791 yuan/ton (+3). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1750 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1760 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 41 yuan/ton (-13), in Henan was - 51 yuan/ton (-3), and in Jiangsu was - 31 yuan/ton (-3) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of January 26, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 86.39% (0.08%) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - On January 26, 2026, the urea production profit was 185 yuan/ton (-10) [1] 4. Urea Foreign - Market Price and Export Profit - On January 26, 2026, the export profit was 969 yuan/ton (+99) [1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of January 26, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 42.96% (+2.88%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 63.65% (+1.47%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 5.88 days (-0.18) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of January 26, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 94.60 tons (-4.01), and the port sample inventory was 13.40 tons (+0.00) [1]