橡胶产业数据日报-20260127

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Rubber prices are oscillating and falling. High overseas raw material prices support rubber prices, but the current futures-spot price spread has widened to a relatively high level, limiting the upside potential of the futures price. The recommended trading strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single-side trading and focus on the arbitrage strategy of going long on NR and short on RU [4]. 3. Summary Based on the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - Domestic Futures - RU main contract price is 16,230, down 85 from the previous value; NR main contract price is 13,085, down 10; BR main contract price is 13,265, up 335 [3]. - RU2605 - RU2601 spread is -70, up 25; RU2701 - RU2609 spread is 685, up 5; NR main - sub - main spread is -40, down 10; BR main - sub - main spread is 120, up 165 [3]. - RU - NR spread is 3,145, down 75; RU - BR spread is 2,965, down 420; NR - BR spread is -180, down 345 [3]. - RU - Tocom RSS3 ($) spread is 104, up 26; NR - Sicom TF ($) spread is 16, up 1 [3]. - Foreign Futures - Tocom RSS3 (yen/kg) is 347.0, down 5.6; Sicom TF (cents/kg) is 186.5, unchanged [3]. 3.2 Raw Material Prices - Thailand (Thai baht/kg) - Smoke sheet rubber is 60.60, down 0.10; raw rubber sheet is 56.89 (N/A for change); glue is 57.70, up 0.10; cup rubber is 53.00, unchanged [3]. - Hainan and Yunnan (yuan/ton) - Hainan glue (latex concentrate) is 13,900, unchanged; Hainan glue (whole milk) is 13,100, unchanged; Yunnan glue (latex concentrate) and Yunnan rubber block (whole milk) data are N/A [3]. 3.3 Factory Costs and Profits - Full - latex delivery profit: Thailand's profit is 634, up 92; Hainan and Yunnan data are N/A [3]. - Latex concentrate production profit: The profit is 726, no previous value provided [3]. - Smoke sheet and 20 - grade rubber gross profit: Thailand's 20 - grade rubber data is N/A (previous value - 447); domestic 9710 data is N/A (previous value 550); Thailand's smoke sheet rubber is 1,492, up 113 [3]. 3.4 Domestic Spot Market - Light - colored rubber - Old whole milk is 15,950, down 50; Vietnam 3L is 16,400, down 100; Thai mixed rubber is 15,150, down 50; Malaysian mixed rubber is 15,100, down 50 [3]. - Dark - colored rubber - Thai standard is 13,584, down 52; domestic standard II is 14,300, down 100; domestic 9710 is 14,750, down 150 [3]. - Latex - Shanghai: Huangchunfa bulk is 12,250, up 50; Shanghai: Hainan bulk is 11,900, up 50 [3]. - Synthetic rubber - Butadiene rubber BR9000 is 12,900, up 200; styrene - butadiene rubber SBR1502 is 13,200, up 400; styrene - butadiene rubber SBR1712 is 12,000, up 500 [3]. 3.5 Overseas Spot Market - Mixed rubber: Thai mixed CIF is 1,960, unchanged; Malaysian mixed CIF is 1,950, unchanged [3]. - Standard rubber: Thai standard CIF is 1,960, unchanged; Malaysian standard CIF is 1,950, unchanged; Indian standard CIF is 1,875, unchanged [3]. 3.6 Price Spreads - Futures - spot price spreads - RU - Thai mixed is 1,080, down 35; RU - old whole milk is 280, down 35; RU - Vietnam 3L is -170, up 15 [3]. - NR - Thai standard delivery profit is -737, up 10; NR - Indian standard delivery profit is -110, up 10; NR - Malaysian standard delivery profit is -668, up 10 [3]. - Spot price spreads - Thai standard - Thai mixed ($) is 5, unchanged; Vietnam 3L - Thai mixed is 1,250, down 50; domestic standard II - Thai mixed is -850, down 50 [3]. - Old whole milk - Vietnam 3L is -450, up 50; domestic 9710 - Thai mixed is -400, down 100; Thai standard - African 10 - grade ($) is 70, unchanged [3]. 3.7 Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - Exchange rates - US dollar index is 97.5053, unchanged; US dollar/Chinese yuan is 6.9843, down 0.009; US dollar/Japanese yen is 155.7175, unchanged; US dollar/Thai baht is 31.0920, unchanged [3]. - Interest rates - SHIBOR - overnight is 1.420, up 0.024; SHIBOR - seven - day is 1.543, up 0.052 [3]. 3.8 Supply, Inventory, and Demand - Supply: Thai raw material glue price is 57.7 Thai baht/kg (up 0.1, 0.17%); cup rubber price is 53 Thai baht/kg (unchanged) [4]. - Inventory: As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 58.45 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons (0.07%) from the previous period. Bonded area inventory is 9.45 tons, a decrease of 5.03%; general trade inventory is 49 tons, an increase of 0.95% [4]. - Demand: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a decrease of 0.49 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 22.14 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, an increase of 8.75 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 5.03 percentage points year - on - year [4].