有色商品日报（2026年1月27日）-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices showed a strong and volatile trend. The import loss of domestic refined copper narrowed. The US durable goods orders increased by 5.3%, and the market's bet on a new US government shutdown by the end of January reached 78%. In December, China's net refined copper imports decreased by 48.44% year - on - year, while waste copper imports increased. LME and SHFE copper inventories decreased, while Comex copper inventory increased. Although high copper prices have weakened consumption and increased inventory, the spill - over effect of the bullish sentiment in precious metals and the capital's pursuit of non - ferrous metals still maintain the upward momentum of copper prices. The current copper price should be evaluated from a financial perspective, and the overall trend is considered bullish and volatile. It is recommended to buy on dips [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina was weakly volatile, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy were strongly volatile. The spot price of alumina declined, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. Due to environmental control in Henan, alumina production was restricted, and inventory decreased. After the price adjustment, downstream demand improved, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. It is expected that the aluminum price will be supported upwards before the holiday. Attention should be paid to inventory trends and holiday arrangements [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, both LME and Shanghai nickel prices declined, and inventories increased. It is expected that Indonesia's nickel ore production will decrease by 10% - 15% this year. The price of nickel - related products has increased, but the production of primary nickel has increased significantly, and the social inventory has also increased, which may put pressure on the price. In the short term, the price may fluctuate widely at a high level. Attention should be paid to the cost line for potential long - entry opportunities and the actual implementation of policies [2][3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Copper: The fundamental and financial factors jointly affect copper prices. The financial attribute is more important at present, and the overall trend is bullish and volatile [1]. - Aluminum: Environmental control affects production, downstream demand improves, and the price is expected to be supported upwards [1][2]. - Nickel: Indonesia's policy supports the price in the short term, but the increase in production and inventory may cause pressure. The price may fluctuate widely at a high level [2][3]. Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper increased by 1585 yuan/ton, and the import loss narrowed. LME and SHFE copper inventories decreased, while Comex copper inventory increased [1][4]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the inventory decreased [4]. - Aluminum: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum decreased by 80 yuan/ton, and the inventory increased [5]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 4250 yuan/ton, and the social inventory increased [5]. - Zinc: The main settlement price increased by 0.8%, and the inventory increased [7]. - Tin: The main settlement price increased by 5.5%, and the inventory increased [7]. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts to analyze the spot premium, SHFE near - far month spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profit of various non - ferrous metals from 2019 - 2026 [13][14][21][27][33][40].