碳酸锂日报（2026年1月27日）-20260127

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On January 26, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 dropped 6.56% to 165,680 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 10,500 yuan/ton to 181,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose 10,500 yuan/ton to 178,000 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 8,000 yuan/ton to 169,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased 490 tons to 28,646 tons [3]. - Sigma announced the sale of a second shipment of 100,000 tons of high - purity lithium tailings (1% lithium content) on January 23, 2026, with a reference price of 195 US dollars/ton for SMM lithium oxide content of 1.35% and an actual transaction price of 140 US dollars/ton; previously, the price of the first shipment of lithium tailings announced for sale on January 13 was 125 US dollars/ton. Core Lithium optimized the restart plan of the Finniss lithium mine project and advanced the final investment decision [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production decreased 388 tons to 22,217 tons. On the demand side, the weekly production of ternary materials increased 621 tons to 18,256 tons, and the inventory increased 611 tons to 18,868 tons; the weekly production of lithium iron phosphate increased 293 tons to 87,319 tons, and the inventory increased 700 tons to 96,590 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased 783 tons to 108,896 tons [3]. - Overall, without a clear negative feedback in demand, there is still an expectation of inventory reduction in Q1, but it is necessary to be vigilant about the amplification of market volatility and the impact of positions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Price and Inventory Changes: Futures prices fell, while spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide rose. Warehouse receipt inventory increased [3]. - News Events: Sigma sold two shipments of lithium tailings, and Core Lithium optimized the lithium mine project restart plan [3]. - Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis: Supply decreased, demand and inventory of downstream products increased, and the overall social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased [3]. - Outlook: There is an expectation of inventory reduction in Q1, but market volatility and position impact need attention [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract decreased 15,840 yuan/ton to 165,680 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the continuous contract decreased 15,060 yuan/ton to 164,580 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium Ore: The prices of lithium ore such as lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased to varying degrees [5]. - Lithium Salts: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide increased, while the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased 1,000 yuan/ton to 145,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Price Spreads: The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 3,500 yuan/ton, while the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased 2,500 yuan/ton to - 12,500 yuan/ton [5]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: The prices of ternary precursors and cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate and manganese acid lithium increased [5]. - Lithium Batteries: The prices of various lithium - ion battery cells and batteries also showed an upward trend [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: The report provides historical price charts of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica from 2024 - 2026 [6][9]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: It shows historical price charts of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide from 2024 - 2026 [12][14]. - Price Spreads: There are charts of various price spreads, including the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate from 2024 - 2026 [19]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: Historical price charts of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 - 2026 are provided [25][27]. - Lithium Battery Prices: It presents historical price charts of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 - 2026 [32][35]. - Inventory: There are charts of downstream inventory, smelter inventory, and other - link inventory of lithium carbonate from 2025 - 2026 [37][39]. - Production Costs: A chart of the production cost of lithium carbonate from 2024 - 2026 is shown, including the production profit from different raw materials [42].