中辉有色观点-20260127

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Silver: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term holding, ★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lead: Under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Rise then fall, ★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish, ★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical and Fed - related issues lead to high uncertainty. Precious metals have long - term strategic value, and copper has long - term potential due to supply - demand imbalance. Zinc rebounds due to inventory reduction, while other metals face different market situations [1][3][4][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Performance: Gold and silver prices have risen significantly. For example, SHFE gold rose 5.13% and SHFE silver rose 16.57%. The gold - silver ratio has decreased. The dollar index has weakened [2] - Core Logic: Geopolitical tensions, Fed independence crisis, and government shutdown risk increase the safe - haven demand for gold and silver. Long - term strategic value remains unchanged [1][3][4] - Strategy Recommendation: Long - term holding. Domestic gold has short - term support at 1085, and domestic silver at 23150. Long - term bullish logic remains [1][4] Copper - Market Performance: Copper prices are oscillating upward. For example, the closing price of SHFE copper main contract rose 0.68%. The inventory shows different trends, with social inventory slightly decreasing and COMEX copper inventory increasing [5] - Core Logic: The 2026 TC/RC negotiation of Japanese copper smelters is under pressure. Chile delays the peak of copper production, and short - and medium - term supply is under pressure. Green copper demand is on the rise [6] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term oscillation is strong. Hold long positions and take profits by moving stop - loss. In the long - term, be bullish on copper. Focus on the range of SHFE copper [101500, 105500] yuan/ton and LME copper [13000, 13500] dollars/ton [7] Zinc - Market Performance: Zinc prices have rebounded to the 25,000 - yuan mark. For example, the closing price of SHFE zinc main contract rose 1.37%. Inventory has decreased [8] - Core Logic: Global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026. Domestic new mines have uncertain production increments. Mid - and downstream enterprises are actively replenishing inventory, and off - season inventory reduction exceeds expectations [9] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions and gradually take profits at high prices. Enterprises should actively arrange selling hedging. Focus on the range of SHFE zinc [24800, 25500] and LME zinc [3300, 3400] dollars/ton [10] Aluminum - Market Performance: Aluminum prices have weak rebound momentum. The closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract decreased by 0.31%. Inventory has increased [11] - Core Logic: The daily output of electrolytic aluminum continues to increase, and downstream demand shows a differentiated performance. The alumina market is in surplus [13] - Strategy Recommendation: Stop profit and wait and see in the short - term. Pay attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operation range is [23200 - 25200] [14] Nickel - Market Performance: Nickel prices face pressure in rebound. The closing price of SHFE nickel main contract decreased by 1.77%. Stainless steel inventory has slightly increased [15] - Core Logic: Indonesia reduces the nickel ore production target, and supply - related events occur frequently. Domestic pure nickel inventory has increased, and downstream stainless steel is in the off - season [17] - Strategy Recommendation: Stop profit and wait and see. Pay attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes. The main operation range of nickel is [135000 - 153000] [18] Carbonate Lithium - Market Performance: The main contract LC2605 has a large amplitude, opening high and closing low [19] - Core Logic: The supply of lithium salt plants is tight, and downstream demand may increase due to policies. Total inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks [20] - Strategy Recommendation: Buy on dips in the range of [16300 - 178000] [21]