1月收官，政府债供给压力如何？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the government bond supply in January showed a return to front - loaded efforts, with increased issuance volume and a longer - term structure. The incremental supply mainly came from local bonds. The overall supply pressure in the first quarter remained high, with front - loaded rhythm and longer duration characteristics. The core of the phased impact was the increase in supply concentration and the rise in the proportion of ultra - long - term bonds. Although the primary market enthusiasm for bonds has limited recovery, the carrying capacity is temporarily stable, and the issuance and carrying environment will improve with the return of potential allocation forces. Attention should be paid to the micro - situation's impact on primary pricing and secondary sentiment in the short term, and the demand change trend of the term structure under the normal state of high supply in the medium term [2][4][30]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1. January Government Bond Supply: Return of Front - Loaded Efforts and Longer Issuance Terms - Scale and Rhythm: In January 2026, the government bond issuance volume increased significantly compared to the same period last year, with a front - loaded trend. The total net financing was about 115.619 billion yuan, of which local bond net financing was about 72.944 billion yuan, contributing most of the incremental supply. Compared with the average level from 2020 to 2024, the net financing in January 2026 was slightly higher [9]. - Term Structure: In January 2026, the supply of treasury bonds showed an overall increase in all terms, with the medium - and long - term becoming the main increment. The proportion of 30 - year treasury bonds in the total issuance continued to decline. For local bonds, the issuance scale increased significantly year - on - year, the proportion of ultra - long - term bonds remained stable, and the weighted term increased from 16.4 years to 17.7 years, indicating that the market carrying pressure was more concentrated on 30 - year ultra - long - term varieties [10][12]. - Issuance Tendering: In January 2026, the issuance of local bonds remained stable, but the intensity of capital participation declined. The overall multiple of local bond issuance tenders decreased, and the issuance relied more on passive funds. The spread between local bonds and treasury bonds converged, indicating that the supply - demand relationship of local ultra - long - term bonds remained relatively stable [13][15]. 2. Outlook for the First Quarter: The Duration Pressure on the Supply Side Needs to be Re - balanced - Issuance Plan: In 2026, the total government bond supply will remain high. The net financing of treasury bonds in the first quarter is expected to be in the range of 50 - 150 billion yuan, and the net financing of local bonds is expected to be 245 - 247 billion yuan per quarter. The issuance intensity of treasury bonds is adjusted through single - period scale, and attention should be paid to the planned scale of the 2 - year treasury bond issued on February 4. The expected issuance scale of local bonds from January to March is about 244 billion yuan, with a front - high and back - low net financing characteristic. The subsequent local bonds may continue the high - duration issuance feature, and the demand side will be under continuous pressure [16][18]. - Institutional Demand: The equity allocation of insurance funds has a phased squeezing effect on the ultra - long - term, but there is marginal repair space. The allocation of insurance funds to ultra - long - term local bonds has strong seasonality, and the buying intensity usually recovers gradually during the year. The expansion of the insurance liability side provides a basis for subsequent bond allocation. The potential expansion space of the insurance side can support the subsequent ultra - long - term supply [20][23]. - Spread Comparison: Since January 2026, the pricing of ultra - long - term local bonds has shown the characteristics of spread convergence and stable repair of issuance interest rates. The deviation between the issuance interest rate and the secondary market yield of 30 - year local bonds has narrowed, and the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds has fallen back to the historical average range, indicating that the supply - demand relationship is gradually re - balanced [26]. - Policy Tone: The 2026 fiscal policy continues to be more proactive, with high - intensity in total amount, more focused in structure, stronger efficiency orientation, and parallel debt reduction and development. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm and structure of fiscal incremental arrangements and the subsequent issuance plan [27].