公募REITs2025Q4业绩分析：关注边际改善信号，布局筑底企稳机会

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 25Q4, most asset performances showed marginal improvement. The revenue and EBITDA of public utilities, consumption, industrial parks, and warehousing logistics all increased, while the EBITDA decline of energy and transportation significantly narrowed year-on-year. However, the rental income and EBITDA of affordable rental housing decreased slightly, and IDC benefited from long - term contracts with major clients, maintaining stable performance [3]. - The performance of different sectors in the future will be affected by various factors. Public utilities are expected to have stable cash - flows, but performance differentiation depends on the active management ability of operators. The consumption sector is expected to have a compensatory increase in 26Q1, and its performance is expected to be stable in the long - term. Affordable rental housing will face new supply shocks in 2026, and different operators need to find a balance between volume and price. The energy sector's revenue stability depends on power trading strategies. The traffic sector's performance is related to road network planning and cost control. The warehousing sector's rent is expected to decline in the short - term, and the industrial park sector will enter a deep adjustment period [3][35][56][80][102][126][147][175]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - In 25Q4, the performance of most assets showed a marginal improvement trend. The revenue and EBITDA of consumption, industrial parks, and warehousing logistics increased quarter - on - quarter, and the revenue of public utilities increased year - on - year. The EBITDA decline of energy and transportation significantly narrowed, and the single - quarter distribution rate of the three major types of operating - rights assets increased significantly in 25H2 [3][6][8]. - The available distribution amount completion rate of REITs established in 2024 and 2025 was 79% and 64% respectively [11][13]. 3.2 Public Utilities - As of January 23, 2026, the expansion project of Shougang Water Service REIT was terminated. The scale and price of the four listed public - utility REITs are regulated by the government [20]. - In 25Q4, the waste treatment volume and power generation of Shougang Biomass REIT increased year - on - year. The sewage treatment volume of Shougang Water Service REIT decreased quarter - on - quarter, and the water supply volume of Shaoxing Raw Water REIT decreased quarter - on - quarter. The actual heat - stop rate of Jinan Energy Heating REIT was lower than expected, and the heating area increased [23]. - The revenue of Shougang Biomass REIT increased by more than 24% year - on - year, and Jinan Energy Heating REIT achieved significant cost - reduction. The revenue, profit, and available distribution amount of Shougang Water Service REIT decreased quarter - on - quarter, and the revenue, EBITDA, and available distribution amount of Shaoxing Raw Water REIT decreased quarter - on - quarter [27]. - In 2026, the cash - flows of public - utility REITs are expected to be stable, but the performance differentiation depends on the active management ability of operators. Attention should be paid to seasonal fluctuations, external interventions, and local new competition [35]. 3.3 Consumption - There are 12 listed consumption REITs, involving four types of sub - assets: shopping centers, outlet malls, supermarkets + community commerce, and agricultural product markets. The project management is generally carried out by high - quality commercial real - estate operating enterprises [39]. - In 25Q4, the eight consumption REITs achieved good operating performance. The rental rate and rent generally increased slightly year - on - year/quarter - on - quarter or remained basically the same, and the collection rate was close to full collection. Half of the projects' rent reached a new high in the past five periods [45]. - The fund revenue generally increased, and the performance of Bailian Consumption REIT significantly improved. The available distribution amount of most consumption REITs increased year - on - year/quarter - on - quarter or remained basically the same, but the available distribution amount of China Green Development Commercial REIT and Huagong Agricultural Market REIT decreased significantly quarter - on - quarter [49][56]. - In 26Q1, the operating performance of consumption REITs is expected to have a compensatory increase. In the long - term, with the implementation of the "national subsidy" policy and the focus on expanding domestic demand, the performance of consumption REITs is expected to be stable [56]. 3.4 Affordable Rental Housing - As of 25Q4, 8 affordable rental housing REITs were listed, and China Resources Youchao REIT completed its expansion and issuance [58]. - Government - led projects had stable volume and price, while market - oriented projects exchanged price for volume. The overall rental rate remained stable, but the rental rate of some projects decreased significantly, and the bottom - floor business recruitment progress of some projects was slow [61][64]. - The overall revenue increased, but the profit margin generally decreased quarter - on - quarter. The available distribution amount of most projects changed little or increased year - on - year, but the available distribution amount of some projects decreased significantly [65][69][74]. - In 2026, affordable rental housing REITs will face new supply shocks. First - tier cities' rents are expected to be more resilient, while second - and third - tier cities' rents may face greater pressure. Different operators need to find a sustainable balance between volume and price [80]. 3.5 Energy - As of January 23, 2026, 9 energy infrastructure REITs had been recruited. In 25Q4, China National Nuclear Power Clean Energy REIT was newly issued, and Beijing Energy Photovoltaic REIT completed its expansion [82]. - More than half of the energy REITs' power generation decreased year - on - year, and the power price generally declined year - on - year. The revenue slightly decreased, and the EBITDA stabilized, but the profit indicators were differentiated [84][88][94]. - About 67% of the REITs' available distribution amount increased year - on - year, driving the overall and unit available distribution amount to increase by 3.0% year - on - year [97]. - In 2026, the mechanism power generation will set a floor for revenue. The stability and elasticity of project revenue depend on power trading strategies and capabilities [100][102]. 3.6 Transportation - As of January 23, 2026, 13 transportation infrastructure REITs were listed, and 3 projects were queuing up [104]. - In 25Q4, most projects' daily average traffic volume decreased quarter - on - quarter/year - on - year, and the toll revenue decreased quarter - on - quarter but increased year - on - year. More than half of the projects' EBITDA profit margin was at the lowest level in the year [108][111][115]. - 40% of the REITs' available distribution amount increased year - on - year. The available distribution amount of some projects increased significantly, while that of some projects decreased due to high maintenance costs [122]. - In 2026, the traffic performance of projects affected by diversion in 2025 is expected to improve year - on - year, and the performance of projects still facing diversion pressure depends on refined cost control [126]. 3.7 Warehousing Logistics - As of January 23, 2026, 11 warehousing logistics REITs had been issued, mainly located in first - tier cities and their surrounding areas and logistics hub cities [128]. - In 25Q4, the national warehousing logistics rental market still faced rent adjustment pressure, with "regional differentiation and overall pressure". The rent of market - oriented rental projects decreased, and the overall rental rate increased slightly. The rent of whole - lease projects was relatively stable, with small fluctuations [131][135][136]. - The revenue and profit margin generally weakened, but the available distribution amount increased quarter - on - quarter on average due to the year - end centralized dividends of newly - listed REITs [138][142]. - In the short - term, the national warehousing rent is expected to continue to decline. The performance of projects will vary according to regional levels and rental operation models, and some projects with improved supply - demand conditions may recover first [147]. 3.8 Industrial Parks - As of 25Q4, 20 industrial park REITs were listed, involving 50 projects, mainly in the east of the Hu Line, with a continuous increase in R & D/office and manufacturing projects [149]. - The rental rate and collection rate of business parks increased, but the rent was still at the bottom. The rental rate and collection rate of manufacturing parks were high, but the rent still faced downward pressure [155][159]. - The marginal improvement of fund revenue began to appear, but the EBITDA was still under pressure. The change trend of the available distribution amount of individual bonds was differentiated, and some industrial park REITs' secondary - market net value dropped to a low level, with the distribution rate reaching a new high in the past five periods [163][167][171]. - In 2026, the supply of industrial parks is expected to be at a high level, and the rental downward pressure will continue. Attention should be paid to high - quality projects with a good supply - demand pattern, marginal improvement in operating fundamentals, and a stable rent trend [175]. 3.9 IDC - Two listed IDC - REITs operate under long - term agreements with major clients. In 25Q4, their operation was stable, and the financial indicators increased significantly quarter - on - quarter [177][181]. - In 2026, the basic business of the two IDC projects is expected to be stable due to long - term agreements. Attention should be paid to cost - side changes, such as the construction progress of surrounding substations and the control of energy - efficiency indicators [185].