豆一冲高回落，豆粕延续震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean sales slow down, the price remains stable, and there is still a certain amount of surplus grain before the Spring Festival; the domestic imported soybeans decline, the port inventory drops, the auction is postponed; the oil - mill operating rate rebounds, the soybean meal inventory decreases, and the demand is strong. It is expected that soybean futures will fluctuate strongly, while soybean meal futures will remain volatile [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - The main soybean contract 2605 quickly soared to 4440 and then quickly fell back, hitting a new high in nearly a year. The spot price was relatively stable, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans around 4400 yuan/ton. The soybean basis weakened in a volatile manner, and the futures price was slightly at a discount. The main soybean meal contract 2605 fluctuated up and down. The spot price of soybean meal rose slightly and steadily, with the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang rising from 3060 yuan/ton to around 3070 yuan/ton. The basis weakened in a volatile manner, and the futures price was at a high discount [4]. Domestic Soybean Situation - The sales of domestic soybeans slowed down. As of January 23, the remaining grain ratio of Heilongjiang soybeans remained at 40% month - on - month; that of Anhui soybeans dropped to 48%, a 2% month - on - month decrease; that of Henan soybeans dropped to 52%, a 3% month - on - month decrease; and that of Shandong soybeans dropped to 53%, a 3% month - on - month decrease. Due to the differentiation of grain quality, the expectation of tight supply of high - quality domestic soybeans continued. Recently, the state - reserve soybean auction was suspended, and with the approaching of the Spring Festival, enterprise procurement slowed down [4]. Imported Soybean Situation - Imported soybeans continued to decline, and the port soybean inventory continued to drop. In December 2025, China imported 804300 tons of soybeans, a month - on - month decline and a 1.28% year - on - year increase. The cumulative imported soybeans in 2025 were 111818500 tons, a 6.46% year - on - year increase. There was no latest imported soybean auction announcement. The soybeans purchased from the US by China might enter the reserve rotation. The arrival of soybeans at oil mills stabilized, and the port soybean inventory continued to decline. As of January 23, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 174200 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease; the port soybean inventory was 721500 tons, a continuous month - on - month decline [4]. US Soybean Situation - US soybeans fluctuated at a low level. The USDA January supply - demand report was bearish. The US soybean production was slightly increased, exports were slightly reduced, but the ending stocks were significantly increased. The Brazilian soybean production was increased, and the global ending stocks were increased. Attention should be paid to the increasing production pressure of the new - season soybeans in South America [5]. Oil - mill and Soybean Meal Situation - The operating rate of oil mills rebounded again, and the soybean meal inventory continued to drop. As of January 23, the operating rate of oil mills was 57.83%, a month - on - month rebound; the soybean crushing volume was 2102100 tons; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 6589900 tons, a month - on - month decline. The soybean meal output was 1661000 tons; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 898600 tons, a continuous month - on - month decline; the unfulfilled contracts for soybean meal were 4061600 tons, a month - on - month decline. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 10.21 days, a continuous month - on - month increase [5]. Feed Demand Situation - The feed demand was strong. In terms of livestock farming, the pig price rebounded, and the breeding profit increased. As of January 23, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 115.84 yuan per head, an increase in profit; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 43.35 yuan per head, an increase in profit. The reduction of production capacity achieved certain results. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the inventory of breeding sows and live pigs in December both decreased. From the situation of large - scale farms, the inventory of breeding sows continued to decline month - on - month in December, the culling of old pigs increased; the birth and sales volume of piglets increased month - on - month, and the replenishment sentiment improved; the inventory of commercial pigs decreased slightly month - on - month for the first time in nearly a year. However, the profit might drag down the pace of future production capacity reduction. In terms of poultry farming, the egg price rebounded, and the breeding turned from loss to profit; the culling of old chickens increased, and the inventory in December decreased slightly month - on - month. The feed demand was still strong, and feed enterprises actively stocked up [6].