ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2026-01-27 07:29Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the coking coal industry, highlighting its strategic importance due to scarcity and irreplaceability [3][4]. Core Insights - Coking coal is recognized as a strategic resource, with its global value underscored by the U.S. Department of Energy listing metallurgical coal as a critical material. Despite recent price declines due to increased imports from Mongolia and reduced domestic steel demand, the report anticipates a reversal in supply-demand dynamics, leading to a potential price increase in the future [4][5]. - The report forecasts a significant improvement in the performance of coking coal companies as supply tightens and demand rises, particularly from developing countries. It suggests that the price of coking coal could stabilize around 2000 RMB/ton, with a range of 1500-2500 RMB/ton expected [4][5]. Global Supply - Global coking coal supply is projected to decline, with key producing countries experiencing reduced output. The report estimates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -0.7% for coking coal production from 2025 to 2030 [4][5]. - In China, coking coal production is expected to decrease due to resource depletion and potential capacity exits, with a forecasted production of 59.47 million tons in 2025 [13][22]. - Russia's coking coal supply is also anticipated to decline, with production expected to drop due to severe losses in coal companies and limited domestic transport capacity [27][29]. - Australia is facing a reduction in coking coal supply as high-cost mines exit the market due to low prices and increased operational costs [34][39]. Global Demand - Global demand for coking coal is expected to rise, particularly driven by developing countries. The report predicts a CAGR of 0.9% for crude steel production from 2025 to 2030, with significant contributions from India and ASEAN countries [4][5][58]. - India's crude steel production is projected to grow at a CAGR of 6.3% from 2025 to 2030, leading to increased consumption and imports of metallurgical coal [58][59]. - The report highlights that while China's steel demand is expected to decline slightly, the overall global steel demand is anticipated to stabilize and rebound, particularly in emerging markets [55][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on coking coal companies with low market capitalization per ton of coal, such as Pingmei Shenma Energy, Hengyuan Coal Power, Shanxi Coking Coal, Jizhong Energy, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Huaibei Mining [4][5].