First Shanghai Securities·2026-01-27 07:45Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on companies in the advanced packaging industry and highlights potential investment opportunities in CPU manufacturers like AMD and Intel [3][4]. Core Insights - Intel's recent earnings report confirms a shortage of CPUs, with a revenue of $13.67 billion for Q4 2025, a year-on-year decline of 4.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3%. The client computing group (CCG) revenue was $8.19 billion, down 6.6% year-on-year, while the data center and AI (DCAI) segment saw a revenue increase of 8.9% to $4.74 billion [2]. - The report emphasizes the rising importance of CPU performance in the Agentic AI era, suggesting that CPU shortages could significantly enhance the profitability of related companies [3]. - The advanced packaging supply chain is experiencing increased demand due to AI investments, with companies like TSMC facing capacity constraints and price increases expected in the packaging sector [4]. - Domestic packaging companies are anticipated to benefit from strong overseas demand and a surge in local demand for advanced packaging processes in 2026 [4]. - The report highlights the emergence of domestic computing power solutions, with significant investments from major internet companies expected in 2026, indicating a growing market for domestic computing power [5][6]. Summary by Sections Intel's Financial Performance - Intel's Q4 2025 revenue was $13.67 billion, with a decline in CCG revenue and growth in DCAI revenue. The guidance for Q1 2026 is between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, lower than expected due to capacity constraints [2]. Advanced Packaging Industry - The advanced packaging sector is experiencing a boom, with companies like ASE and Amkor expected to raise prices by 5-20% due to high demand and limited supply [4]. Domestic Computing Power - The report identifies a strong opportunity for domestic computing power solutions, with significant investments from companies like ByteDance and Alibaba expected to drive demand in 2026 [6]. IC Substrate Supply Chain - The IC substrate supply chain is facing shortages due to limited supply of glass fiber, with domestic companies likely to benefit from price increases in the market [7]. Global Computing Power Demand - The report anticipates sustained high growth in computing power demand driven by AI applications, with companies like Google planning to double their computing power every six months [8]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks, including domestic computing power companies like Cambricon and SMIC, as well as companies in the advanced packaging and IC substrate sectors [10].