沪铅震荡偏弱延续

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai lead market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend. The domestic supply and demand are both weak, with inventory accumulating at a low level. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the holiday situation of secondary lead and downstream enterprises, as well as changes in waste battery costs and domestic inventory [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Changes - In December 2025, the import volume of lead concentrates was about 149,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.8% and a year - on - year increase of 24.63%. The domestic winter demand for lead concentrates is high, and the domestic mine supply shortage continues. The domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees have further declined at a low level. In February, the domestic monthly processing fee is 200 - 300 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the import monthly processing fee is - 160 - - 140 US dollars/dry ton, a monthly decrease of 5 US dollars/dry ton. The domestic lead ore weekly processing fee is 200 - 300 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the import weekly processing fee is - 160 - - 140 US dollars/dry ton, a weekly decrease of 5 US dollars/dry ton [2]. Supply - In December 2025, the output of primary lead was 332,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.56% and a year - on - year increase of 1.56%, higher than expected. The output of secondary refined lead was 268,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.35% and a year - on - year increase of 0.83%. Last week, the operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 66.85%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19%. The operating rate of secondary lead in four provinces was 50.26%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%. The import window for refined lead remains open, but the import profit has slightly narrowed [3]. Consumption - This week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 70.77%, basically unchanged from last week. The electric bicycle battery market is the weakest in consumption, and some enterprises plan to reduce production and advance the Spring Festival holiday. The domestic consumption of the automotive battery market is okay, but export orders are weak. The downstream battery enterprises' enthusiasm for stocking before the Spring Festival is lower than in previous years, and some enterprises plan to take an early holiday, leading to an accumulation of social inventory [4]. Spot - As of the week of January 23, the domestic lead spot basis fluctuated between premiums and discounts. The lead spot basis was at a premium of 55 yuan last weekend. The LME lead spot continued to be in a deep discount state, with a discount of - 44.56 US dollars last weekend [4]. Inventory - As of the week of January 23, the LME lead weekly inventory increased by 8,825 tons to 215,200 tons, and the inventory was fluctuating at a high level. The weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 7,693 tons to 29,351 tons. As of January 26, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations reached 34,900 tons, and the inventory continued to rise month - on - month but was at a relatively low level in the past four years [4].