2025 年资金面回顾及 2026 年展望：资金情绪分化，等待新一轮共振

Overview - The funding sentiment has shown a divergence, with a continuous improvement in the funding environment throughout 2025. The net inflow of funds accounted for 6.8% of the free float market value, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to 2024. The net inflow of funds (considering half of dividends) accounted for 4.6% of the free float market value, up by 0.6 percentage points from 2024 [4][11][12]. Group 1: 2025 Funding Environment - Various types of funds, including trading funds, high-net-worth investors, insurance funds, and industrial capital, have shown a strong inflow, leading to a robust funding environment [4][12]. - The leverage funds have seen a significant increase in inflow speed, and private equity funds have surged due to improved regulatory policies and increased demand from high-net-worth investors [12][13]. - The scale of company dividends has reached a historical high, and share buybacks have remained at elevated levels, supporting a strong supply-demand balance in the stock market [12][13]. Group 2: 2026 Funding Outlook - The incremental funding for 2026 is expected to remain promising, with potential structural changes. Resident funds are anticipated to have new inflow channels, continuing the trend of "deposit migration" [12][13]. - Long-term funds, including social security funds and enterprise annuities, are expected to provide a "ballast" effect as their equity positions are currently low [12][13]. - Foreign capital is expected to improve its return speed, with an increase in passive allocation funds to Chinese assets anticipated in 2026 [12][13]. Group 3: Monthly Trends - In December 2025, the net inflow of funds accelerated, primarily due to increased net inflow into ETFs and high dividend payouts from listed companies. The number of new accounts also saw a month-on-month increase [21][22]. - In January 2026, the activity of trading funds significantly increased, with a rapid growth in financing balances, while broad-based ETFs experienced substantial net outflows [21][22]. - The net inflow of thematic and industry ETFs, which are favored by resident funds, maintained a positive trend [21][22]. Group 4: Resident and Institutional Funds - In December 2025, the number of new accounts at the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached 2.5967 million, a month-on-month increase of 215,300 accounts [25]. - The financing balance increased by 167.8 billion yuan from January 1 to January 20, 2026, indicating a high level of inflow [21][24]. - The net inflow of private equity funds has also shown a significant increase, with the management scale reaching 70,383.54 billion yuan by November 2025 [24].