瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - For alumina, the fundamentals are in a stage of excessive supply and stable demand. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals are in a stage of stable supply and cautious demand. The aluminum price remains high due to macro - expectations. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals are in a stage of sufficient supply and weak demand. The cast aluminum price remains high and volatile due to cost support. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract is 24,305.00 yuan/ton, up 90.00 yuan; the closing price of the main alumina futures contract is 2,734.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan [2] - Spreads: The spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai aluminum is - 130.00 yuan/ton, up 25.00 yuan; that of alumina is - 146.00 yuan/ton, down 8.00 yuan [2] - Positions: The position of the main Shanghai aluminum contract is 311,897.00 hands, down 10,190.00 hands; that of the alumina main contract is 481,235.00 hands [2] - LME Quotes: The three - month LME electrolytic aluminum quote is 3,188.50 US dollars/ton, up 15.00 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory is 505,275.00 tons [2] - Other Indicators: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum is - 63,980.00 hands, up 2,585.00 hands; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.62, down 0.01 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Aluminum Spot Prices: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 23,870.00 yuan/ton, down 160.00 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum is 23,990.00 yuan/ton, down 160.00 yuan [2] - Alumina Spot Price: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,555.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Premiums and Discounts: The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 190.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is - 7.31 US dollars/ton, down 3.56 US dollars [2] - Basis: The basis of alumina is - 179.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 435.00 yuan, down 250.00 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina Production and Demand: Alumina production is 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 28.90 million tons, up 2.32 million tons [2] - Aluminum Scrap Trade: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal waste is 18,650.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; China's import of aluminum scrap is 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; the export is 70.80 tons, down 0.73 tons [2] - Alumina Trade: Alumina exports are 21.00 million tons, up 4.00 million tons; imports are 22.78 million tons, down 0.46 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Electrolytic Aluminum: The import of primary aluminum is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the export is 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons; the total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,536.20 million tons, up 12.00 million tons; the operating rate is 98.31%, up 0.10% [2] - Aluminum Products: Aluminum product production is 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 54.00 million tons, down 3.00 million tons [2] - Recycled Aluminum Alloy: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 68.40 million tons, down 1.60 million tons; the export of aluminum alloy is 2.55 million tons, down 0.51 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - Automobile Production: Automobile production is 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles [2] - Real Estate: The national real estate prosperity index is 91.45, down 0.44 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 23.56%, down 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.88%, down 0.01% [2] - Implied Volatility and Ratio: The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22.86%, down 0.0111%; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 2.06, up 0.3464 [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of the end of 2025, the number of new energy vehicles in China reached 43.97 million, accounting for 12.01% of the total number of vehicles. In 2025, 12.93 million new energy vehicles were newly registered, accounting for 49.38% of the newly registered vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.93% [2] - Policies to cultivate new growth points in service consumption will be introduced soon, including measures to expand inbound consumption, build national digital trade demonstration zones, and promote consumption of large - scale durable goods [2] - Exchanges took measures to cool down the commodity futures market. The daily opening position limits of silver and tin futures contracts were lowered, and the price limit ranges and margin ratios of copper, international copper, and aluminum futures contracts were adjusted [2] - The People's Bank of China emphasized expanding the scope of macro - prudential policies and maintaining financial stability [2] - The US threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian imports if Canada reaches a new trade agreement with China. China stated that China - Canada cooperation does not target any third - party [2]