公募基金重点产品、策略回顾与展望：主动超额延续，固收增强突围

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ETFs will continue to develop, with a trend of diversification and intensified competition. Active equity funds are expected to continue to generate excess returns in 2026, and institutional confidence in them has increased. For fixed - income enhanced funds, attention should be paid to the balanced and flexible medium - volatility strategy, and new - stock income contributions are expected to rise [2]. 3. Summary by Directory ETF Review and Outlook - Issuance and Scale: Passive equity funds continued large - scale issuance, but the growth rate slowed. In 2025, the issuance scale of active and passive equity funds was 165.7 billion shares and 411.9 billion shares respectively, with year - on - year increases of 130.04% and 69.97%. By the end of the third quarter of 2025, the scale of active and passive equity funds was 4.04 trillion yuan and 4.71 trillion yuan respectively, up 21.91% and 38.34% from the end of the previous year [5]. - Fund Flows: In 2025, funds flowed from broad - based ETFs to industry - themed ETFs. In 2026, satellite/commercial space, non - ferrous metals, and AI - themed ETFs had significant net inflows. Technology - themed ETFs had the highest net inflows in 2025, followed by financial real - estate and cyclical - themed ETFs [8][10]. - Learning from Overseas: Referring to the development of the US fund industry, the trend of ETF development will continue. Although the scale will maintain stable growth, the growth rate may slow down. Some active managers can consider the US active ETF model [13]. - Policy Impact: Policies have optimized the product registration and benchmark setting mechanisms, reduced fees, and encouraged the development of passive equity products. The future development of ETFs will be diversified and competitive [15]. Active Equity Fund Review and Outlook - Performance: In 2025, the scale of active equity funds stopped falling and rebounded, and both the overall market and industry - themed active equity funds outperformed passive equity funds. In the long run, overall market funds and active management funds in cyclical, pharmaceutical, and technology themes can achieve relatively stable excess returns [20]. - Excess Return Characteristics: Active equity funds have significant excess returns when the growth style is dominant and when new industrial trends emerge. There is a certain correlation between the concentration of active equity fund holdings and excess returns. In 2026, active equity funds are expected to continue to generate excess returns, and the proportion of institutional holdings has stopped falling and rebounded [23][26]. - Performance Back - testing of Technology Bottom - Position Varieties: As of December 31, 2025, the annual net value of selected technology bottom - position varieties increased by 74.02%, significantly outperforming the CSI TMT index by 29.55 percentage points. The position adjustment operations in the first three quarters of 2025 were more focused and offensive [29][31]. - Performance Back - testing of Pharmaceutical Bottom - Position Varieties: As of December 31, 2025, the annual net value of selected pharmaceutical bottom - position varieties increased by 43.06%, significantly outperforming the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index by 31.12 percentage points. The positions in 2025 significantly over - allocated the innovative drug sector and were flexibly adjusted [36][41]. - Policy Impact: Policies have strengthened benchmark constraints, bound the interests of managers, fund managers, and investors, and guided active equity funds to return to the origin of investment. Active and passive management will co - exist, and theme - stylization may be an important way for active funds to break through in the future [42]. Fixed - Income Enhanced Fund Review and Outlook - Focus on the Balanced and Flexible Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income + Strategy: In the context of the continuous decline of the risk - free interest rate, the scale of wealth management is expected to continue to expand, and fixed - income enhancement is an important direction for the overflow of wealth - management funds. The medium - volatility fixed - income enhancement strategy can better play the advantage of diversified asset allocation and should be focused on [48]. - New - Stock Income Contribution: In 2026, as the A - share market is expected to continue to recover slowly, the new - stock income contribution is also expected to increase [50]. - FOF Funds: The scale of FOF funds has significantly rebounded, and the proportion of passive products in FOF holdings has continued to increase. The asset allocation of FOF is becoming more diversified [52]. - Performance Review of Fixed - Income Enhancement Strategies: The medium - high - volatility balanced strategy outperformed the secondary bond fund index in 2025. The rotation strategy aiming for absolute returns also outperformed the ChinaBond Composite Wealth Index in 2025 [61][65]. - Policy Impact: Policies encourage the development of equity - containing medium - low - volatility products and asset - allocation products, and promote the coordinated development of equity and fixed - income investments. They also encourage long - term investment [69].