银河期货沥青日报-20260127

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - On January 27, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3,263 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a 0.12% increase. The asphalt market showed different trends in different regions. The asphalt price in South China increased due to tight supply, while the demand in East China was shrinking, and the price in the North remained stable. The asphalt price was expected to remain stable in the short - term. The asphalt futures followed the high - level volatility of crude oil, and the domestic spot price was stable, with weakening demand expectations [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Relevant Data - Futures Prices and Positions: The prices of BU2603 (the main contract) remained unchanged at 3,279 yuan, while BU2604 decreased by 5 yuan (-0.15%) to 3,274 yuan, and BU2605 decreased by 17 yuan (-0.52%) to 3,267 yuan. SC2603 decreased by 10.6 yuan (-2.32%) to 446.7 yuan, and Brent's first - line decreased by 0.4 (-0.58%) to 64.58. The main contract's position decreased by 10,000 lots (-6.00%) to 163,000 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 32,000 lots (-14.56%) to 190,000 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 38,480 tons [2]. - Basis and Spread: The BU04 - 05 spread increased by 12 to 7, with a 40.00% increase; the BU04 - 03 spread increased by 5 to 5. The Shandong - main contract basis increased by 5 to - 4, with a 55.56% increase; the East China - main contract basis increased by 5 to - 94, with a 5.05% increase; the South China - main contract basis increased by 5 to - 54, with an 8.47% increase [2]. - Industrial Chain Spot Prices: The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged. Shandong gasoline decreased by 12 yuan (-0.17%) to 7,016 yuan, Shandong diesel decreased by 41 yuan (-0.72%) to 5,647 yuan, and Shandong petroleum coke decreased by 30 yuan (-1.04%) to 2,860 yuan. The diluted asphalt discount remained unchanged at - 13.2, and the exchange - rate mid - point increased by 0.0015 (0.02%) to 6.9858 [2]. - Spread Profits: The asphalt refinery profit increased by 6.49 (204.06%) to 9.66, the refined oil comprehensive profit decreased by 8.45 (-1560.28%) to - 8.99, the BU - SC cracking spread increased by 72.96 (16.71%) to - 363.56, the gasoline spot - Brent spread increased by 8.56 (1.21%) to 714.28, and the diesel spot - Brent spread decreased by 17.10 (-8.15%) to 192.77 [2]. Second Part: Market Judgement - Market Overview: In South China, the asphalt price increased due to tight supply and project rush - work. In East China, the demand was shrinking, and the market transaction was light. In the North, the terminal projects were stagnant, and the prices were stable. In Shandong, the asphalt price was firm due to low inventory and previous contracts. In the Yangtze River Delta, the market was in a situation of having a price but no transaction [4][5]. - Market Outlook: Geopolitical turmoil continued, and the crude oil cost fluctuated widely. The asphalt futures followed the high - level volatility of crude oil. The domestic spot price was stable, supported by low inventory and low supply, but the demand was expected to weaken due to the approaching Spring Festival [6]. Third Part: Relevant Attachments - The report includes figures such as the closing price and position of the BU main contract, the asphalt market prices in East China and Shandong, and the gasoline and diesel prices in Shandong, with data from sources like Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [9][13][14].