玉米淀粉日报-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that US corn will experience a relatively strong upward trend at the bottom due to the recent speculation about the drought in Argentina and the weakening supply pressure [8]. - Corn spot prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the short term. However, the upside potential for corn spot prices is limited, and there is room for a decline in the 03 corn futures contract [8]. - The 03 starch futures contract is expected to experience a weakening trend in the short - term, with a downward - trending price movement [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - Futures Market: - Corn futures, including contracts C2601, C2605, and C2509, all showed price declines, with decreases of 0.09%, 0.35%, and 0.22% respectively. Trading volume decreased significantly, while open interest increased [2]. - Corn starch futures, such as contracts CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509, also had price drops, with decreases of 0.39%, 0.35%, and 0.69% respectively. The trading volume of CS2601 increased by 1300%, and open interest increased across the board [2]. - Spot and Basis: - Corn spot prices in various regions showed mixed trends. For example, the price in Qinggang remained unchanged, while the price in Nantong Port increased by 10 yuan, and the price in Zhucheng Xingmao decreased by 6 yuan. The basis varied from region to region, with values ranging from - 138 to 152 yuan [2]. - Starch spot prices in different enterprises remained stable, and the basis was positive, with values between 92 and 292 yuan [2]. - Spread: - Corn inter - delivery spreads, such as C01 - C05, C05 - C09, and C09 - C01, showed different changes. Starch inter - delivery spreads and cross - variety spreads also had corresponding price fluctuations [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Corn: - The drought in Argentina has led to a rebound in the price of US corn at the bottom, but it still oscillates at a low level due to the global supply pressure. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the import price from Brazil in July was 2194 yuan [4]. - The flat - hatch price at northern ports has decreased, while the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area has remained stable. The supply of corn in North China has decreased, and the spot price is relatively strong. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has narrowed [4][6]. - Wheat and corn auctions are ongoing. The wheat price in North China is relatively strong, with a price around 2510 yuan/ton. The price difference between wheat and corn is still large, and corn has a cost - performance advantage. The domestic aquaculture demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased [6]. - Starch: - The number of trucks delivering corn to deep - processing enterprises in Shandong has increased, and the local corn spot price has remained stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2780 yuan, and the spot price in the Northeast is stable. The corn starch inventory has decreased this week, with the manufacturer's inventory at 106.9 million tons, a decrease of 3.1 million tons from last week, a monthly decline of 3.0%, and a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [7]. - The starch price is mainly affected by the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The by - product price is relatively strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. Due to the end of pre - holiday inventory - building, the starch spot price is weak, and enterprises are still operating at a loss [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The 03 US corn has support at 420 cents per bushel. Close the short positions of 03 corn and 03 starch [9]. - Arbitrage: Close the reverse spread position of the 35 starch contract [10]. - Option Strategy: Adopt a short - term cumulative put option strategy with rolling operations [11]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The attachments include six charts, showing the flat - hatch price of corn at northern ports, the basis of the corn 05 contract, the 5 - 9 spread of corn, the 5 - 9 spread of corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 05 contract, and the spread of the corn starch 05 contract, respectively [14][15][18]