银河期货液化气日报-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international LPG market remains tight, and external prices are continuously high. In the short term, the LPG market trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish, but continuous attention should be paid to the Iranian situation. [7][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data - Domestic Futures: The price of PG2602 was 4,248 yuan, down 92 yuan from the previous day; the main position was 95,673, a decrease of 1,536; the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5,867. [2] - Domestic Spot: In the domestic spot market, prices in different regions showed mixed trends, with prices in South China rising and those in North China falling. The basis increased by 192 yuan to 600 yuan. [2][5][6] - External Prices: Most external prices remained stable, with only BRENT and MB C3 M1 showing slight declines. [2] - Disk Profits: Import profit and PDH profit both decreased, with import profit FEI dropping by 94.2 yuan to -268.9 yuan and PDH FEI falling by 30.6 yuan to -621.0 yuan. [2] 3.2 Crude Oil and Natural Gas Market - The US Energy Department issued an emergency order to mitigate power - outage risks in North Carolina after winter storm "Furn". The large - scale winter storm in the US affected oil and gas producers and industrial plants, boosting natural gas prices by 40% at noon. OPEC+ is expected to maintain stable oil production next month. [3][4] 3.3 Spot Overview - Shandong Region: The estimated price of civil gas was 4,410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The market was stable with a downward trend, and it is expected to stabilize overall tomorrow with sporadic declines. The price of ether - after C4 was 4,350 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the market was running weakly and stably. [5] - East China Region: The mainstream transaction price of civil gas was 4,384 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The market was mostly stable with individual increases, and it is expected to remain stable in the short term. [5] - South China Region: The average transaction price of domestic gas was 4,840 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; the average price of imported gas was 4,970 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. Refineries and terminals raised prices, but it is expected that terminals will have limited room for further price increases. [6] - North China Region: The benchmark price of civil gas was 4,313 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The market generally declined, and low - price transactions were better. [6] 3.4 Market Judgment - The international LPG supply is tight, and external prices are high. In this period, the LPG supply increased slightly while the arrival volume decreased. On the demand side, the high cost of downstream chemical enterprises led to a significant decline in PDH operation. The Iranian risk adds a risk premium, and the market is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the short term. [7][9]