Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-27 09:44Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint On Tuesday, the RB2605 contract decreased with reduced positions. Macroeconomic factors, such as Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Canada and the US increasing tariffs on South Korea, have intensified trade tensions. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar has stopped falling and rebounded, reaching around 2 million tons, while the apparent demand has declined, and inventory has shifted from decreasing to increasing. Overall, during the off - season, rebar demand continues to shrink, more long - position holders among the mainstream positions are closing their positions, putting pressure on futures prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward, with the red bars turning green. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,126 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan [2] - RB main contract open interest: 1,714,659 lots, down 16,197 lots [2] - RB contract top 20 net open interest: - 58,403 lots, up 7,245 lots [2] - RB5 - 10 contract spread: - 48 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] - RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 38,283 tons, unchanged [2] - HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread: 163 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,290 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (actual weight): 3,374 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan [2] - Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,440 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,160 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - RB main contract basis: 164 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 798 yuan/wet ton, down 7 yuan [2] - Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke (FOB price): 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel (tax - excluded): 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 167.6285 million tons, up 2.1204 million tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 419,400 tons, up 14,600 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.6199 million tons, up 117,900 tons [2] - Tangshan billet inventory: 1.562 million tons, up 68,900 tons [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 78.66%, down 0.16 percentage points [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 85.53%, up 0.07 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill rebar output: 1.9955 million tons, up 92,500 tons [2] - Sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate: 43.75%, up 2.03 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill rebar inventory: 1.4898 million tons, up 63,200 tons [2] - 35 - city rebar social inventory: 3.0312 million tons, up 77,100 tons [2] - Independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate: 70.83%, down 1.05 percentage points [2] - Domestic crude steel output (monthly): 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons [2] - China rebar monthly output: 13.75 million tons, up 190,000 tons [2] - Steel net export volume (monthly): 10.78 million tons, up 1.3 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - National real estate prosperity index: 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment: - 3.80%, down 1.20 percentage points [2] - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment: - 17.20%, down 1.30 percentage points [2] - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment: - 2.20%, down 1.10 percentage points [2] - Cumulative value of housing construction area: 659.89 million square meters, down 38.24 million square meters [2] - Cumulative value of new housing construction area: 58.77 million square meters, down 53.13 million square meters [2] - Commercial housing unsold area: 40.236 million square meters, down 8.75 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - Since late January, there has been a fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution process in central and eastern China, and the pollution level has recently increased. As of now, 87 prefecture - level and above cities in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei and surrounding areas, the Yangtze River Delta, and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River have launched emergency responses to heavy pollution weather warnings to jointly address this cross - regional heavy pollution process [2] - US President Trump recently stated that if Canada reaches a trade agreement with China, the US will impose a 100% tariff on all Canadian imports. In response, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun said at a regular press conference on the 26th that China advocates that countries should handle inter - country relations with the concept of win - win rather than zero - sum and in a cooperative rather than confrontational way [2]