山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260127

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term safe - haven situation is affected by rising risks of trade wars and geopolitical changes, along with a weakening US job market and moderate inflation, which support the expectation of interest rate cuts. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the US aircraft carrier strike group is gathering in the Middle East, and Iran has threatened a full - scale war in case of any attack. Trump plans to raise tariffs on some South Korean goods, increasing trade war and geopolitical risks. - Regarding the monetary attribute, US core capital goods orders in November increased for the fifth consecutive month, boosting the economic outlook. The December CPI increase met expectations, but household food and rent expenses rose. The Fed cut interest rates in December with differences, hinting at a possible single rate cut next year. The market expects a 95% probability of no rate cut in January 2026, with the next possible cut in June. The US dollar index and US bond yields are oscillating strongly. - For the commodity attribute, the Polish central bank plans to buy up to 150 tons of gold. Silver is supported by tight supply. Platinum has strong demand expectations for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen energy industry. Palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. - It is expected that precious metals will oscillate upward in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise in a step - like manner in the long term [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Gold - Strategy: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, buy on dips. Manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - Price Data: Comex gold active contract closed at $5004.80 per ounce, up 0.44% from the previous day and 8.77% from last week. London gold closed at $5090.80 per ounce, up 2.92% from the previous day and 9.08% from last week. Shanghai gold futures closed at 1148.38 yuan per gram, up 0.44% from the previous day and 8.32% from last week [2]. - Position and Inventory Data: Comex gold positions were 528,004 lots, up 8.17% from last week. Shanghai gold futures positions were 217,484 lots, up 0.77% from the previous day and 16.95% from last week. LBMA gold inventory was 9106 tons, up 2.24% from last week [2]. 2. Silver - Strategy: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, buy on dips. Manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Price Data: Comex silver active contract closed at $103.89 per ounce, up 0.61% from the previous day and 15.50% from last week. London silver closed at $109.61 per ounce, up 10.71% from the previous day and 17.85% from last week. Shanghai silver futures closed at 28,300 yuan per kilogram, up 4.02% from the previous day and 22.71% from last week [4]. - Position and Inventory Data: Comex silver positions were 152,020 lots, up 0.33% from last week. Shanghai silver futures positions were 4,653,150 lots, down 3.83% from the previous day and 1.43% from last week. The total visible inventory was 41,819 tons, down 0.09% from the previous day and 1.13% from last week [4]. 3. Platinum - Strategy: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, buy on dips. Manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - Price Data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2627.10 per ounce, up 5.98% from the previous day and 8.75% from last week. London platinum closed at $2507.00 per ounce, up 0.20% from the previous day and 5.07% from last week. Platinum futures on the GQEX closed at 685.90 yuan per gram, up 8.21% from the previous day and 12.43% from last week [7]. - Position and Inventory Data: NYMEX platinum positions were 66,423 lots, down 0.51% from the previous day and up 0.26% from last week. NYMEX platinum inventory was 21 tons, down 1.46% from the previous day and up 4.94% from last week [7]. 4. Palladium - Strategy: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, buy low and sell high. Manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [10]. - Price Data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1945.50 per ounce, up 3.79% from the previous day and 4.29% from last week. London palladium closed at $1850.00 per ounce, up 2.35% from the previous day and 2.44% from last week. Palladium futures on the GQEX closed at 497.95 yuan per gram, up 2.94% from the previous day and 6.09% from last week [10]. - Position and Inventory Data: NYMEX palladium positions were 17,998 lots, down 0.22% from the previous day and 2.15% from last week. NYMEX palladium inventory was 7 tons, up 2.54% from last week [10]. 5. Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Monetary Attribute: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 3.75%, and the reserve balance interest rate is 3.65%. The Fed's total assets are $66354.43 billion. M2 growth rate is 4.27%. The 10 - year US real bond yield is 2.46%, the US dollar index is 97.04, and the US bond spreads and interest rate differentials show certain changes [11][13]. - US Economic Indicators: Unemployment rate is 4.40%, non - farm payrolls changed by 50,000, labor participation rate is 62.10%, average hourly wage growth rate is 3.80%. In the real estate market, existing home sales are 4.35 million units, new home sales are 0.57 million units, and new home starts are 1.061 million units. Retail sales, personal consumption, industrial production, and trade data also show specific changes [13]. - Central Bank Gold Reserves: China's gold reserves are 2306.32 tons, the US's are 8133.46 tons, and the world's total is 36362.76 tons. The proportion of US dollars in IMF foreign exchange reserves is 56.32%, the euro is 21.13%, and the RMB is 2.12% [13]. - Safe - Haven and Commodity Attributes: The geopolitical risk index is 67.15, down 34.97% from the previous day and 62.69% from last week. The VIX index is 16.15, up 0.37% from the previous day and down 14.28% from last week. The CRB commodity index is 315.11, up 0.92% from the previous day and 2.86% from last week. The offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9516 [13]. 6. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate decisions at different meetings from January 2026 to December 2027 are presented in the CME FedWatch tool, showing the probabilities of different interest rate ranges at each meeting [15].