铜日报：美铜在前高位置震荡，市场进入指引真空期-20260127

Group 1: Copper Futures Market Data Analysis - The Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 101,880 yuan/ton on January 26, 2026, showing a slight increase compared to the previous day; the LME copper price rose from $12,840/ton on January 23, 2026, to $13,128.5/ton on January 26, 2026, continuing to rise. In terms of basis, the SMM premium copper discount deepened from -110 yuan/ton on January 23, 2026, to -135 yuan/ton on January 26, 2026, with the basis weakening; the LME (0 - 3) discount narrowed from -$82.84/ton to -$66.06/ton, with the basis strengthening [51]. - The LME copper positions increased by 9,606 lots to 325,527 lots on January 23, 2026, with the position volume expanding; the market trading activity improved marginally, but the spot trading remained light [51]. Group 2: Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - On the supply side, SHFE approved the registration of Jiangxi Copper Guoxing's additional 180,000 - ton smelting capacity on January 26, 2026, increasing the supply; the BHP strike incident has not affected copper mine production for the time being. The inventories of LME, SHFE, and COMEX all increased, indicating supply pressure [52]. - On the demand side, as the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream's willingness to stock up at low prices has increased, and the export of copper cables is expected to grow in 2026, driven by global infrastructure demand. The demand in sectors such as power and construction has improved marginally [52]. - On the inventory side, the SMM social inventory decreased in January 2026, ending seven consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation; however, the exchange inventories increased, and the warehousing in Shanghai continued [53]. Group 3: Price Trend Judgment - The copper futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the next one to two weeks. The new production capacity and inventory increase on the supply side put pressure on the price, while the stocking and export expectations on the demand side support the price. The market sentiment is positive, but the spot market is under pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate between 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton [55].