白糖日报-20260127

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [2] - Report Date: January 27, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price 5,185, down 4, down 0.08%, volume 16,144, down 1384, open interest 103,859, up 2180 [3] - SR01: Closing price 5,296, down 7, down 0.13%, volume 128, down 102, open interest 838, up 28 [3] - SR05: Closing price 5,168, down 4, down 0.08%, volume 190,426, down 9709, open interest 472,603, up 4628 [3] Spot Market - Spot prices in different regions: Liuzhou 5330 (down 10), Kunming 5155 (down 10), Wuhan 5630 (unchanged), Nanning 5300 (down 10), Bayuquan 5460 (down 70), Rizhao 5415 (down 40), Xi'an 5760 (unchanged) [3] - Basis: Liuzhou 162, Kunming -13, Wuhan 462, Nanning 132, Bayuquan 292, Rizhao 247, Xi'an 592 [3] Spread - SR05 - SR01: Spread -128, up 3; SR09 - SR05: Spread 17, unchanged; SR09 - SR01: Spread -111, up 3 [3] Import Profit - Brazil import: ICE主力 14.77, premium 0.17, freight 32.75, in - quota price 4046, out - of - quota price 5125, spread with Liuzhou 205, spread with Rizhao 290, spread with futures 171 [3] - Thailand import: ICE主力 14.77, premium 1.05, freight 18.00, in - quota price 4098, out - of - quota price 5192, spread with Liuzhou 138, spread with Rizhao 223, spread with futures 104 [3] Group 3: Market Outlook Important Information - Brazil exported 173.76 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of January 2026, with a daily average of 10.86 million tons. In January 2025, the export volume was 206.22 million tons, with a daily average of 9.37 million tons [5] - As of January 24, 2026, in the 2025/26 crushing season, 41 sugar mills in Punjab, Pakistan were in operation, crushing 2489 million tons of sugarcane and producing 232.9 million tons of refined sugar, an increase of 26.6 million tons compared to the same period of the previous season [5] - In Yunnan, 2 more sugar mills started operation on January 27, 2026, and 1 more is expected to start this week. As of now, 47 sugar mills have started operation in the 2025/26 crushing season in Yunnan, 2 more than the same period last year [5] Logic Analysis - International market: Brazilian sugar supply pressure will ease as the harvest season approaches. The market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. India's high bi - weekly production may lead to higher - than - expected growth, putting downward pressure on international sugar prices. However, due to the low sugar price and strong commodities, the US sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [8] - Domestic market: China's sugar production is at its peak, and the output is likely to increase significantly this season. In 2025, China imported 491.88 million tons of sugar, an increase of 56.22 million tons year - on - year. The supply pressure is obvious, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to continue to decline in the short term. But considering the low price and cost support, the decline space is limited [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. The May contract is expected to fluctuate due to supply pressure above and cost support below [9] - Arbitrage: Hold off [10] - Options: Sell put options [11] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi and Yunnan monthly inventory, production, spot prices, basis, and spreads [13][18][20][22][24][26]