银河期货苹果日报-20260127

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an apple daily report in the agricultural product research report, dated January 27, 2024 [1] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - The Fuji apple price index was 108.44, down 0.09 from the previous trading day. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 7.84, down 0.04 [2] - The price of Qixia first and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples was 4.00, down 0.10; the price of Penglai first and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples was 4.10, down 0.15; the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 apples was 4.20, unchanged; the price of Yiyuan paper - bagged 70 apples was 2.50, unchanged [2] Futures Prices - AP01 was 8239, up 23 from the previous close; AP05 was 9466, down 69; AP10 was 8330, down 14 [2] - The spread AP01 - AP05 was - 1227, up 92; AP05 - AP10 was 1136, down 55; AP10 - AP01 was 91, down 37 [2] Other Price Differences - The difference between Qixia first and second - grade 80 apples and AP01 was - 239, down 223; the difference between Qixia first and second - grade 80 apples and AP10 was - 330.0, down 186; the difference between Qixia first and second - grade 80 apples and AP05 was - 1466, down 131 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of January 21, 2026, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas of China was 682.78 million tons, a decrease of 21.88 million tons from the previous week. The inventory removal speed continued to accelerate but was lower than the same period last year [7] - In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 15.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The import volume was 0.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 11.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72% [7] - On January 26, the mainstream price of apples in the producing areas was stable. During the weekend, the number of traders packing and shipping in the cold storage in the producing areas increased significantly, and the enthusiasm for Spring Festival stocking increased [7] - In Shandong, the price of high - quality late - maturing paper - bagged Fuji apples in stock was stable. In Qixia, the mainstream price of 80 and above first, second, and third - grade fruit was 3.0 - 3.5 yuan per catty. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price was stable. In Luochuan, the mainstream price of 70 and above semi - commercial fruit was 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty, and high - quality fruit was 4.5 - 5.0 yuan per catty [7] Trading Logic - This year, the apple cold - storage inventory is low and the quality is poor. The pre - Spring Festival stocking enthusiasm has increased recently, and the inventory removal speed has accelerated. The apple cold - storage inventory cost is high, about 9700 - 10000 yuan per ton. Considering the low inventory, high downstream stocking enthusiasm, and high inventory cost, the overall trend of the apple May contract is expected to be strong [5] Trading Strategies - For the single - side strategy, hold the long position of the May contract and short the October contract on rallies [8] - For the arbitrage strategy, go long on the May contract and short the October contract [8] - For the options strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes 10 figures, such as the price of Qixia first and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 apples, AP contract basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrival volume in wholesale markets, 6 - fruit average price, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple delivery volume [10][13][20][22][25]