瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of December 2025 decreased year - on - year, and as the crushing season nears its end, the available sugarcane for crushing is decreasing. It is expected that future supply will decline, providing some support for raw sugar prices. The domestic fundamentals are relatively flat. With the Spring Festival stocking almost over and the continuous increase of goods at sales - area ports, the spot price has been lowered under the background of a lackluster peak season. The futures market may continue to decline due to lack of spot support [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract was 5168 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4; the main contract's open interest was 472,603 lots, an increase of 4628. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 13,715, unchanged. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 76,951 lots, a decrease of 1387. The total of valid warehouse receipt forecasts for sugar was 132, unchanged. The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4049 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 [2] 3.2现货市场 (Spot Market) - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5129 yuan/ton; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5196 yuan/ton. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5155 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10; in Nanning, Guangxi it was 5270 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou, Guangxi it was 5310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area was 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative sales of cane sugar in Guangxi were 88.48 million tons, an increase of 79.54. The cumulative output of cane sugar in Yunnan was 39.23 million tons, a decrease of 34.75. The total sugar exports from Brazil were 291.3 million tons, a decrease of 38.9. The monthly import volume of sugar was 58 million tons, an increase of 14; the cumulative import volume was 492 million tons, an increase of 58 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 359.04 million tons, an increase of 228.74. The monthly output of soft drinks was 1342.1 million tons, an increase of 296.4 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 9.35%, an increase of 0.17; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 9.35%, an increase of 0.17. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.52%, a decrease of 0.04; the 60 - day historical volatility was 8.27%, a decrease of 0.03 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Brazilian foreign trade secretariat data showed that Brazil exported 1.7376 billion tons of sugar in the first four weeks of January, with a daily average export of 108,600 tons, a 16% increase compared to the daily average export of 93,700 tons in January of the previous year when the total export was 2.062 billion tons. ICE raw sugar futures rose on Monday, supported by short - covering by speculators. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures rose 0.06 cents or 0.41% to settle at 14.79 cents per pound. According to Unica, in the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 billion tons of sugarcane, a 26.6% year - on - year increase; sugar production was 56,000 tons, a 14.90% year - on - year decrease [2]