瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The industry is expected to maintain a situation of high production and high inventory in the short - term. The SH2603 contract is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the range around 1900 - 2000. The 03 contract has limited room for rebound, while the 05 contract is stronger due to the trading of maintenance expectations. The spot supply and demand of liquid caustic soda remain loose, and the low profit of the alumina industry restricts procurement demand and increases the expectation of production cuts in the future. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 1951 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan. The main contract position is 263,142 lots, an increase of 328 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 29,970 lots, a decrease of 457 lots. The main contract trading volume is 621,860 lots, a decrease of 268,681 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2426 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan, and the May contract is 2213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 603 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 1884 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan. The basis is - 67 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 242.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 642 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 350 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina is 2555 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.6 Industry News - From January 16th to 22nd, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 87.7%, a 1.0% increase from the previous week. From January 17th to 23rd, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.65% to 85.18%. From January 16th to 22nd, the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 88.43%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 2.23% to 56.54%. As of January 22nd, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 509,600 tons (wet tons), a 0.49% decrease from the previous period and a 105.77% increase year - on - year. From January 16th to 22nd, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 209 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [3]