瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20260127

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of LLDPE are slightly bearish, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Technically, for the daily K - line of L2605, pay attention to the support near 6780 and the resistance near 6955. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of polyethylene is 6899 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the 1 - month contract closing price is 6947 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the 5 - month contract closing price is 6899 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the 9 - month contract closing price is 6930 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan. [2] - The trading volume is 496,965 lots, down 115,013 lots; the open interest is 520,760 lots, up 5,747 lots. [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is 48, up 9. The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions is 510,998 lots, up 6,394 lots; the sell order volume is 533,068 lots, up 5,465 lots; the net buy order volume is - 22,070 lots, up 929 lots. [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 6,841.3 yuan/ton, down 21.3 yuan; in East China, it is 6,935.81 yuan/ton, up 7.21 yuan. The basis is - 57.7, up 14.69. [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB middle - price of naphtha in Singapore is 61.19 US dollars/barrel, up 0.92; the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan is 573.25 US dollars/ton, up 8. [2] - The CFR middle - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 686 US dollars/ton, down 5; in Northeast Asia, it is 706 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate is 84.67%, up 3.08 percentage points. [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging film is 44.96%, down 3.19 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes is 29%, down 0.33 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural film is 36.32%, down 0.61 percentage points. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 13.76%, down 0.01; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.96%, up 0.19. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for polyethylene is 16.46%, up 1.06; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 16.46%, up 1.07. [2] Industry News - From January 16th to 22nd, China's total polyethylene production was 698,900 tons, a 4.34% increase from last week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 84.67%, a 3.07 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. [2] - From January 16th to 22nd, the average operating rate of polyethylene downstream products decreased by 1.4% from the previous period. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural film decreased by 0.6%, and the operating rate of PE packaging film decreased by 3.2%. [2] - As of January 21st, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 335,000 tons, a 4.37% decrease from last week; the social inventory of PE was 477,400 tons, a 1.43% decrease from last week. [2] - From January 16th to 22nd, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 0.22% to 7,202 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit increased by 1 yuan/ton to - 530 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 0.54% to 6,524 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 27 yuan/ton to 244 yuan/ton. [2]