瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that the Shanghai nickel will have a wide - range and slightly upward adjustment in the short - term, and suggests paying attention to the range of 143,000 - 155,000 yuan/ton [4] - The probability of the US government shutting down again before January 31 has soared to nearly 80%. The import volume of nickel ore is in a downward trend due to the rainy season in the Philippines, and the planned reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia next year and the expected sharp increase in the domestic trade base price in Indonesia lead to concerns about tight raw material supply. The production of nickel iron in Indonesia remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase. The domestic refined nickel production capacity is large, and with the recent rise in nickel prices, the production profit has room for profit, so the refined nickel production is expected to rise again. The profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and the production volume is expected to be high. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. The domestic nickel inventory is on an upward trend, and the market mainly buys on dips, with high spot premiums; the overseas LME inventory continues to increase. Technically, with the reduction of positions and price adjustment, the long - position sentiment is cautious, and it is expected to be mainly wide - range and slightly upward [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 146,110 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 730 yuan/ton; the price difference between the 02 - 03 contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 260 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan/ton [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 18,590 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 120 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 40,119 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 15,899 lots [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 69,268 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 600 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 285,552 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,824 tons [3] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 50,794 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2,614 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME nickel total 10,788 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,506 tons [3] - The warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 42,499 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 18 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 148,100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,700 yuan/ton; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 147,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,800 yuan/ton [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 125 US dollars/ton; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 125 US dollars/ton [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 33,750 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the basis of the main NI contract is 1,990 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,430 yuan/ton [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 208.96 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.27 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 199.28 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 134.67 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,228.62 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 44.76 million tons [3] - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 75.53 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.36 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no week - on - week change [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly production of nickel iron is 21,400 metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 700 metal tons [3] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 99.61 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10.07 million tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 174.72 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.45 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 53.93 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.08 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is willing to manage differences and promote cooperation with the US, and will introduce policies and measures to expand inbound consumption [3] - Zou Lan, the deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, supports increasing the RMB business fund arrangement scale in Hong Kong from 100 billion yuan to 200 billion yuan [3] - Forecast market data shows that the probability of a new shutdown of the US government is close to 80% [3]