瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20260127

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that Shanghai zinc will undergo a relatively strong adjustment, with a focus on the range of 2.45 - 2.55 [3] - The upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are reducing production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters to purchase domestic ores has increased, and the processing fees at home and abroad have significantly decreased, leading to a contraction in domestic smelter profits, and production is expected to continue to be restricted [3] - The export window may close again as the London zinc price has recently corrected and the Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded [3] - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening. However, policy support in areas such as the automotive industry brings some bright spots [3] - The downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has declined, downstream procurement has improved, the spot premium has remained stable, and domestic inventories have decreased. LME zinc inventories have remained stable, and the spot premium has remained at a low level [3] - Technically, the position has decreased, the price opened higher and adjusted, and the bullish sentiment is cautious [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,950 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 225 yuan. The 02 - 03 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 55 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 25 yuan [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,342.5 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 73.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 230,617 lots, with a daily decrease of 4,179 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 3,216 lots, with a daily decrease of 1,490 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, with no change [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 73,151 tons (weekly), with a decrease of 3,160 tons. The LME inventory is 111,325 tons (daily), with a decrease of 175 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,760 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 80 yuan. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 25,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan [3] - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 190 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 145 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 26.43 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 6.19 US dollars [3] - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,530 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,800 yuan/ton, with no change [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons (monthly), with a decrease of 14,700 tons. The ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 7,700 tons (monthly), with a decrease of 4,900 tons [3] - The global zinc ore production value of ILZSG is 1.0627 million tons (monthly), with a decrease of 11,900 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons (monthly), with an increase of 21,000 tons [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons (monthly), with a decrease of 53,900 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons (monthly), with a decrease of 9,469.07 tons. The refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons (monthly), with a decrease of 15,548.89 tons [3] - The zinc social inventory is 112,200 tons (weekly), with an increase of 5,800 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, with an increase of 20,000 tons. The monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, with a decrease of 60,000 tons [3] - The monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, with an increase of 53.1326 million square meters. The monthly housing completion area is 603.4813 million square meters, with an increase of 208.942 million square meters [3] - The monthly automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, with a decrease of 107,500 vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, with an increase of 6.6029 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 28.49% (daily), with an increase of 0.65 percentage points. The implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 28.49% (daily), with an increase of 0.65 percentage points [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 23.73% (daily), with an increase of 0.02 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 13.74% (daily), with no change [3] Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce stated that China is willing to manage differences and promote cooperation with the United States and will introduce policies and measures to expand inbound consumption [3] - Zou Lan, the deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, announced support for increasing the scale of RMB business fund arrangements in Hong Kong from 100 billion yuan to 200 billion yuan [3] - Forecast market data shows that the probability of a new shutdown of the US government before January 31 has soared to nearly 80% [3]