Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-27 09:49Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai Tin will experience short - term wide - range adjustments, with attention on the MA10 support and a price range of 420,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton [3]. - On the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which are expected to continue rising in Q1. The tin ore supply shortage has shown signs of easing. However, smelting production is currently limited due to low raw material inventories, year - end maintenance, and losses for most enterprises, but there is pressure for production to rebound after the Chinese New Year. The increase in Indonesian tin exports has opened the import window and increased import pressure [3]. - On the demand side, the strong development prospects of the AI field will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have risen again, and downstream buyers purchase on price dips. Inventories are stable, with a spot premium of 500 yuan/ton. LME inventories have increased significantly, and the spot premium has declined [3]. - Technically, the price has risen while the position has decreased, and attention should be paid to the battle at the 440,000 - yuan mark [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai Tin is 451,160 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 25,820 yuan/ton. The closing price of the February - March contract for Shanghai Tin is - 940 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 560 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 54,232 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,373 US dollars/ton. The position of the main Shanghai Tin contract is 55,071 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 162 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai Tin is - 4,150 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 823 lots. The total LME tin inventory is 7,065 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 130 tons [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 9,720 tons (weekly), with a month - on - month increase of 171 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 230 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 115 tons [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 8,553 tons (daily), with a month - on - month decrease of 71 tons [3]. Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 428,400 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 6,450 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 426,170 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,030 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the main Shanghai Tin contract is - 22,760 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 32,270 yuan/ton. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 243 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2 US dollars/ton [3]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.76 million tons (monthly), with a month - on - month increase of 0.25 million tons. The average processing fee for 40% tin concentrate (Antaike) is 14,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [3]. - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 414,400 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 6,450 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 418,400 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 6,450 yuan/ton [3]. - The average processing fee for 60% tin concentrate (Antaike) is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 323.25 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 270,070 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4,260 yuan/ton. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.5287 million tons (monthly), with a month - on - month increase of 0.1387 million tons [3]. - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 45,000 tons [3]. Industry News - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that China is willing to manage differences and promote cooperation with the US and will introduce policies and measures to expand inbound consumption [3]. - Zou Lan, the deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, announced support for increasing the scale of RMB business fund arrangements in Hong Kong from 100 billion yuan to 200 billion yuan [3]. - Reports indicate that the probability of a new US government shutdown is nearly 80% according to prediction markets [3].