2026年1月27日利率债观察：“4.5%至 5%”的预期与长债的收益率

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The expectation of a 2026 GDP growth target of "4.5% to 5%" has become a catalyst for the decline in bond yields, but this view is debatable as it confuses the growth target and potential growth rate. The impact of the downward shift in the annual GDP growth target on the bond market is not necessarily positive and may be slightly bearish [1][10]. - From the counter - cyclical perspective, when the economic growth target is higher than the current actual level, monetary policy is favorable for long - term interest rate products like 10Y Treasury bonds. Conversely, a lower economic growth target makes monetary policy less necessary and less urgent, which is unfavorable for bond market valuation [2][11]. - From now until the end of February 2026, the bond market will remain in a low - volatility state, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield likely to stabilize around 1.8% - 1.9%. In March, market volatility may increase due to important meetings. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield's central value is likely to decline after the expectation of a 7D OMO interest rate cut forms, but the decline will not be large [3][11][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalog "4.5% to 5%" Expectation and Long - Term Bond Yields - Some investors expect the 2026 GDP growth target to be "4.5% to 5%", and the probability of this expectation coming true is not low. This lower - than - expected target has led to a decline in the 10 - year Treasury bond yield from 1.90% on January 7 to 1.82% on January 26 [1][8]. - The view that a lower GDP growth target corresponds to a lower interest rate level is debatable because it confuses the growth target and potential growth rate. In the medium - to - long - term, the decline in potential economic growth corresponds to the decline in bond market yields, but market interest rates are also affected by monetary policy [1][10]. - The downward shift in the annual GDP growth target is not positive for the bond market and may be slightly bearish. From the counter - cyclical perspective, a lower economic growth target makes monetary policy less necessary and less urgent, which is unfavorable for bond market valuation [2][10][11]. Bond Market Outlook - From now until the end of February 2026, the bond market will be in a low - volatility state, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield likely to remain stable around 1.8% - 1.9%. In March, due to important meetings, market volatility may increase [3][11]. - The central value of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is likely to decline after the expectation of a 7D OMO interest rate cut forms, but the decline will not be large. The current spread between the 10 - year Treasury bond yield and the 7D OMO interest rate is 42bp, and it is difficult to significantly compress this spread [3][12].