焦炭日报：短期偏震荡-20260127

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coke industry is short - term sideways with a wide - range oscillation, short - term downward pressure, and attention to support near the previous low, with a low - buying mindset [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy orientation. Currently, the comprehensive inventories of coking coal and coke continue to rise, and it is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, with overall weak supply and demand. Downstream steel mills are announcing shutdown and maintenance plans for the Spring Festival, and pre - holiday restocking is nearing completion, leading to a further decline in coke demand. However, coking losses are further expanding, and coke enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. Coupled with a generally warm macro - environment and frequent fiscal and monetary policy announcements, there are still expectations for subsequent policies [2] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - As of January 23, due to the expansion of losses, the production enthusiasm of some small and medium - sized enterprises declined. The coke inventory of independent coke enterprises decreased by 0.36 tons to 81.45 tons, and the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 15.14 tons to 1012.35 tons, with a year - on - year decline of nearly 4% [1] - The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 66 yuan/ton; the average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was - 51 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke was - 8 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was - 103 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was - 11 yuan/ton [1] - Terminal demand maintains off - season characteristics. Although steel mill profits have slightly recovered, the overall enthusiasm for resuming production on the supply side remains limited. This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 78.68%, a year - on - year increase of 0.7 percentage points. The profitability rate increased by 0.86 percentage points from last week to 40.69%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate slightly recovered to 85.51%, and the daily average hot metal output increased slightly by 0.09 tons to 228.1 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65 tons [1] Upstream Coking Coal - This week, the coking coal inventory of coal mines increased slightly. The total coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises was 1177.71 tons, the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased to 803.24 tons, and the imported coking coal inventory at ports continued to increase to 562.99 tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased to 2818.34 tons, still 15.87% lower year - on - year [2] News - According to incomplete statistics from Mysteel, recently, 4 steel mills have released maintenance plans, and shutdown and maintenance plans for steel mills during the Spring Festival are being announced one after another [2]